Energy Prospectus

EIA reported a draw of -33 Bcf for the week ending 4/01/2022. This was larger than the median estimate of -28.27 Bcf. Today's stat fell within the expected range, which was -17 Bcf on the more bearish end, and -36 Bcf on the more bullish end.

Prices were up in the five minutes following the announcement, to $6.15, from $6.029 just before 9:30am.

Inventories for the US are now at a deficit of 399 Bcf to last year and a deficit of 285 Bcf to the five-year average.
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My Take: We are now in the refill season, but I do expect the weekly builds to be lower than the 5 year average as long as our LNG exports remain near capacity of 13 Bcfpd. If the deficit to the 5 year average increases during April and May it will be impossible to refill storage before the next winter heating season arrives.

If $6.00 becomes the "new normal" for ngas prices, all of our gassers have a chance to double from where they are trading today by year-end.

U.S. natural gas price jumps above $6. Oilprice.
The U.S. benchmark natural gas price jumped above $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Wednesday, on the back of estimates that domestic production has dipped in recent days. As of 8:20 a.m. ET on Wednesday, the Henry Hub May futures contract was rallying 4.99% at $6.323/ MMBtu. All the contracts through February 2023 were trading above $6/MMBtu, too. Several factors played a role in the natural gas price rally, including estimates of a decline in U.S. production, and record-high liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as the United States looks to help European allies with non-Russian gas supply.

to add to that I'm reading forecasts of more severe than average hurricane season. could really dent builds in Q3