Energy Prospectus

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for EQT based on the following HH natural gas price averages.
It will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.
> $6.00/MMBtu for Q2 and Q3 2022
> $6.50/MMBtu for Q4 2022
> $5.00/MMBtu for 2023

My valuation increases by $12 to $50 per share.
> I am using a valuation multiple of 4.5 X annualized operating cash flow for 2021-2023.
> As EQT's "Bad Hedges" roll off, a higher multiple should be justified.
> As EQT's actual results and forward guidance confirm my forecast assumptions, a higher multiple should be justified.

From TipRanks:
> On 4-8-2022: EQT Corporation price target raised to $64 from $35 at Mizuho
"Mizuho analyst Vincent Lovaglio raised the firm's price target on EQT Corporation to $64 from $35 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The analyst increased his long-term natural gas price forecast to $3.65/mcf from $3.30/mcf to reflect a greater expected call on U.S. natural gas exports as Europe seeks to displace Russian gas imports. He believes the U.S. will need to support 2bcfd-plus annual export growth longer-term, "with persistently high global gas prices providing an opportunity for gas producers able to take on international price exposure." Lovaglio highlights EQT as a top pick.

> On 4-11-2022: EQT Corporation upgraded to Buy from Hold at Tudor Pickering
"Tudor Pickering analyst Sameer Panjwani upgraded EQT Corporation to Buy from Hold with a $58 price target."

EQT is the largest producer of natural gas in the U.S. with current production of approximately 5.22 Bcf per day. They also produce approximately 43,000 bpd of high value NGLs.

I will be updating all of the other gassers (AR, CRK, CTRA, RRC and SBOW) using the higher natural gas price deck mentioned above. If HH natural gas stays over $6/MMBtu for the next 12 months (I think it could go much higher) and then the "new normal" is $5/MMBtu, all of these companies have a lot more upside for us.

Why should gas prices firm up?
> There is a HIGH probability that the U.S. will not refill ngas storage before the next winter arrives.
> Each week that passes with storage below the 5-year average will increase the bids for Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 NYMEX futures contracts. If the storage deficit to the 5-year average increases in April and May, we may see the bids for winter months go over $10/MMBtu.
> Demand for US LNG will remain high. Europe cannot survive without it.
> Even if we double the number of rigs drilling for gas, supply won't catch up with demand due to lack of pipeline capacity.

Last but not least: American voters see what happened in Europe. We are not going down the Green New Deal drain like they did. Natural Gas is the "cleanest hydrocarbon", so it will be the big winner as wind and solar projects go unfunded.