Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 1,490 Bcf as of Friday, April 22, 2022, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 40 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 406 Bcf less than last year at this time and 305 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,795 Bcf.
At 1,490 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Without much larger builds during April and May (months with lowest ngas demand) it will be IMPOSSIBLE to refill storage to the 5-year average without significantly reducing LNG exports this summer.

April and May are the two months of the year where we normally see large builds in ngas storage.

Since April 1 the deficit to the 5-year average has increased by 26 Bcf.

My guess is that the build for the week ending April 29 will be 50 Bcf, which compares to the 5-year average build of 77 Bcf for the last week of April. If I am correct, we will end April with gas in storage 332 Bcf below the 5-year average.

If LNG exports stay near capacity in May (now very likely since gas prices in Europe for LNG are over $30/MMBtu), we could get to the end of May with storage 400 Bcf below the 5-year average.

Today we have plenty of gas to meet our needs and we should be fine through the summer. However, unless we rebuild storage to at least 3,500 Bcf before the next winter heating season we will have SERIOUS REGIONAL GAS SHORTAGES.

Propane shortages are also going to be an even bigger problem next winter.

I am sorry for the Europeans, but they caused their problems by being too dependent on Russia and dumb enough to think the wind and solar can be a large part of their energy mix. It is not our job to bail out Europe for being stupid.

There are no quick fixes for this energy crisis, but it would help if we had leadership team that had a basic understanding of how important reliable energy is to our standard of living.

Hang tough with the "Gassers". This is going to be an historic year for them all.