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Diamondback Energy (FANG) Price Target - May 3

Posted: Tue May 03, 2022 9:12 am
by dan_s
From our friends at Stifel

Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG, $127.50, Buy; Target $222.00)
Delivers impressive results and increases base dividend 17% - Derrick Whitfield
We view this release as positive. The positives include: i) a total equivalent and oil production beat (1.0% and 0.2% above consensus, respectively, and adjusted for the Delaware asset acquisition) on lower than expected capex (4.7% below consensus), ii) an adjusted EBITDAX beat (4.7% above consensus) driven by strong price realizations (oil and NGLs 8.0% and 6.7% above Stifel) and lower cash operating costs (2.5% below Stifel), and iii) a 17% increase to the base dividend (2.2% annualized yield). The only negative was slightly lower than expected Q222 total equivalent and oil production volumes (0.8% and 0.8% below consensus), albeit on guided Q222 capex 1.8% below consensus and reiterated full-year 2022 guidance. Net-net, Diamondback delivered an impressive quarter in a challenging operating environment while rewarding shareholders with a base-plus-variable dividend of $3.05/share (9.6% annualized yield).

IMO FANG is a "Screaming Buy" up to $150. They have some of the best leasehold in the Permian Basin, an outstanding operating team and consistently beat their production guidance. The Base + Variable dividend will be increasing.

My pre-release valuation of $200 will be increased this afternoon.

Re: Diamondback Energy (FANG) Price Target - May 3

Posted: Tue May 03, 2022 10:49 am
by dan_s
At the time of this post FANG was trading at $134.49

After listening to the Company's Q1 conference call, I have updated by forecast model and increased my valuation by $14 to $210/share.

FANG is a large-cap in our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio
> They increased production by 6.2% in 2020 and by 24.9% in 2021, primarily thru two large acquisitions in Q1 2021.
> The Company's D&C program for 2022 is designed to hold production flat and maximize free cash flow.
> Based on my forecast, FANG should generate over $4.3 billion of FCF in 2021 and pay increasing fixed + variable dividends each quarter.
> Q1 production did beat my forecast and I do expect them to meet or exceed the high end of their production guidance of 376,000 Boepd
> The amount of their unhedged production will increase significantly quarter-after-quarter & future hedges should be collars with high ceilings.

My updated forecast/valuation model will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon.