Energy Prospectus

Dan,

Noticed that Antero Management started making a hard commitment to return 25% of CF to Shareholders until a certain debt limit reached, and 50% or greater thereafter. Their debt is close to 1x EBIDTAX, if not below, and the underlying commodity they sell continues to move higher.

A recent article by G&R on the topic of Natural Gas postulated that sometime in 2022, the US Natural Gas market price would reach a parity with global prices. They listed peak production of the Marcelles and Haynesville fields among other reasons, but I was struck by their specificity (within 6 months and their overall tone of conviction).

I'm sure you read the same article. How much stock do you put in their forecast? They've been reasonably accurate during this cycle.

I think G&R's research is outstanding.
I think the direction of their natural gas price is correct, but I am not quite as bullish as Adam is. I do believe that if we have a hot summer and the storage deficit to the 5-year average expands to 800 Bcf by end of October (Antero's forecast), we will see HH gas prices over $10 this year.

Raymond James forecast is $9.25 in Q4. If you'd like to read the details behind RJ's ngas price forecast, send me an email: dmsteffens@comcast.net

If RJ's 2023 natural as price forecast is correct, all of our "gassers" should be doubles and maybe triples for us from where they are trading today.