Natural Gas Hedges
Posted: Thu May 19, 2022 3:35 pm
Dan,
I know you're not as bullish as G&R, but their Q1 2022 Commentary out today provides rich detail on their unbelievable call that the Marcellus field is in the process of plateauing within the next 6 months, which according to them, once recognized will flip the domestic natural gas price from $8 to global pricing (>$30). If the spot price goes there, doesn't a 4x swing in commodity pricing provide a greater X multiple on these stocks?
I can build a list based on your research, but i'm wondering two things:
First, do you have a list in descending order of most exposed to least exposed to spot price for the natural gas companies you follow?
Second, if a person were to believe in $25-$30 spot pricing for nat. gas, and want to key that in to your company-specific spreadsheets, does the price keyed in need to be adjusted for the hedge?
Thanks.
Scott
I know you're not as bullish as G&R, but their Q1 2022 Commentary out today provides rich detail on their unbelievable call that the Marcellus field is in the process of plateauing within the next 6 months, which according to them, once recognized will flip the domestic natural gas price from $8 to global pricing (>$30). If the spot price goes there, doesn't a 4x swing in commodity pricing provide a greater X multiple on these stocks?
I can build a list based on your research, but i'm wondering two things:
First, do you have a list in descending order of most exposed to least exposed to spot price for the natural gas companies you follow?
Second, if a person were to believe in $25-$30 spot pricing for nat. gas, and want to key that in to your company-specific spreadsheets, does the price keyed in need to be adjusted for the hedge?
Thanks.
Scott