Energy Prospectus

Register on the EPG website home page before noon or send an email to Sabrina at energyprospectus@gmail.com

The Zoom links that Sarina sends you are for one person only, you cannot share them with friends.

I believe we will see $10/MMBtu natural gas prices in Q3.

THE GAS CRISIS IS COMING TO AMERICA
Goehring & Rozencwajg
Natural Resource Market Commentary

"A sudden and unexpected event is about to take place: the “global” natural gas crisis, now
gripping huge swaths of the world, is about to engulf North America as well.

Asian and European natural gas prices stand at $35 per mmbtu, versus $8.20 per mmbtu
here in the United States. Given the underlying fundamentals that have now developed in
US gas markets, we believe prices are about to surge and converge with international prices
within the next six months.

The natural gas market outside of North America has been in an extreme shortage since the
end of last summer. Prices first broke $35 per mmbtu last October, plateaued, and then
surged again in December, surpassing $50 per mmbtu – equivalent to $300 per barrel oil.

The problems started in Europe last spring. After a colder-than-normal end to winter across
most of Europe and Russia, inventories reached dangerously low levels. By midsummer,
European utilities and industrial consumers turned to global LNG markets seeking additional
supplies after Russian pipeline imports failed to replenish stockpiles.

Conventional wisdom says that Russia withheld contracted gas throughout the summer;
however, our analysis shows that Russia fulfilled all its volume requirements. What Russia
did not do was ship additional gas over and above the contracted levels, preferring instead
to refill first its own domestic inventories.

Strong Asian demand left little additional LNG for other buyers – a danger we warned
about in our 4Q20 letter. European buyers panicked once they realized they would be unable
to refill inventories ahead of the winter heating season. In response prices surged five-fold
higher.

Although North American investors might not be aware, record gas prices have already
impacted Europe’s economy. Both fertilizer manufacturing and metal smelting facilities
have been forced to close and governments have offered cash subsidies to help soften the
blow. European coal demand has hit all-time highs, undoing a decade of CO2 reduction
efforts in only a few months.

All this occurred before Russia invaded the Ukraine."

when is it

I missed it. Will there be a replay?

Yes, the replay link is now on the EPG home page.

Direct LInk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmWW_L9oaN8

Just watched the replay

Comment

Some of the oil companies are half and half

clr
pxd
mgy

I love oxy

both oil and NG UNHEDGED

Someone on the call wanted an un hedged Gassy name

I suggest OXY

you get oil unhedged and ng unhedged

Actual prices

https://www.demac.com/reference-materia ... ti-series/

EOG and CLR should get a nice revenue boost from natural gas and NGL prices.

I just updated the Sweet 16 summary spreadsheet.
> S16 closed on May 20 at just 2.86X operating cash flow per share. That is insane. Companies of this quality should trade for at least 6X operating CFPS.
> S16 PE ratio based on my 2022 forecast is 8.46, which compares to the S&P 500 average PE ratio over 18.
> Companies trading for under 2X operating CFPS are CPE, LPI and NOG