Continental Resources (CLR) Valuation Update - June 6
Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2022 11:26 am
This week I am updating all of my Sweet 16 forecast/valuation models using my new oil & gas price deck that I highlighted in Saturday's podcast.
At the time of this post CLR was trading at $70.57, up ~55% YTD.
I have updated my current valuation of CLR by $7 to $117.00 per share.
> None of CLR's oil is hedged, so their full-year realized oil price should be approximately $102/bbl based on my new commodity price deck.
> ~54% of CLR's natural gas is hedged for Q2 and the volumes hedged decline each quarter. For 2023, ~38% of CLR's gas is hedged.
> CLR does report dry gas and NGLs on a combined basis, so on an mcfe basis their gas price gets ~$1.50/mcf boost thanks to high NGL prices. For example, their realized natural gas + NGLs price was $6.29/mcfe in Q1 2022.
> ~71% of CLR's revenues in 2022 will be from crude oil sales.
> 2022 revenues should be close to $11 billion; compared to $5.6 billion in 2021.
> 2022 FCF should be close to $5.1 billion. < Amazing!
On June 2nd, Stifel raised their price target by $5 to $107/share.
My updated forecast/valuation model has been posted to the EPG website home page.
At the time of this post CLR was trading at $70.57, up ~55% YTD.
I have updated my current valuation of CLR by $7 to $117.00 per share.
> None of CLR's oil is hedged, so their full-year realized oil price should be approximately $102/bbl based on my new commodity price deck.
> ~54% of CLR's natural gas is hedged for Q2 and the volumes hedged decline each quarter. For 2023, ~38% of CLR's gas is hedged.
> CLR does report dry gas and NGLs on a combined basis, so on an mcfe basis their gas price gets ~$1.50/mcf boost thanks to high NGL prices. For example, their realized natural gas + NGLs price was $6.29/mcfe in Q1 2022.
> ~71% of CLR's revenues in 2022 will be from crude oil sales.
> 2022 revenues should be close to $11 billion; compared to $5.6 billion in 2021.
> 2022 FCF should be close to $5.1 billion. < Amazing!
On June 2nd, Stifel raised their price target by $5 to $107/share.
My updated forecast/valuation model has been posted to the EPG website home page.