EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - June 9
Posted: Thu Jun 09, 2022 11:03 am
Working gas in storage was 1,999 Bcf as of Friday, June 3, 2022, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 97 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 398 Bcf less than last year at this time and 340 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,339 Bcf.
At 1,999 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
The deficit to the 5-year average continues to grow. Over the last six week (during the lowest demand period of the year) the deficit to the 5-year average has increased by 34 Bcf.
Weather forecast for the next two weeks is bullish for natural gas demand, so the deficit to average storage should continue to grow. Keep in mind that natural gas demand will remain much higher than the 5-year average for the reminder of the year and thru all of 2023. Europe's dire shortage of natural gas supply, which was "dire" before Russia invaded Ukraine, will keep U.S. LNG exports at capacity at least through next winter. There is no quick fix for what The Green Bad Deal as done to Europe.
Trading Economics:
"US natural gas futures were trading around the $8.5/MMBtu, recovering from their session lows of $8/MMBtu as investors reacted positively to the latest EIA data showing a storage build primarily in line with expectations. Prices were under heavy pressure earlier this session after an explosion at the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas is set to leave fuel supplies stranded in the domestic market despite soaring international demand. Freeport receives about 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day or roughly 16% of US LNG export capacity. Still, prices remain elevated, having touched an almost 14-year high above the $9.5/MMBtu level this week, amid record power demand in Texas, a decline in output, and an intense rally for natural gas as Russia’s war on Ukraine sends energy markets reeling."
All of my forecast models now assume average HH gas prices of
$7.50 for Q2
$8.00 for Q3
$9.00 for Q4
$7.00 for the year 2023 with Q1 prices over $10.00.
At the time of this post, the HH ngas contract (JUL22) was back to $8.90/MMBtu.
This represents a net increase of 97 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 398 Bcf less than last year at this time and 340 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,339 Bcf.
At 1,999 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
The deficit to the 5-year average continues to grow. Over the last six week (during the lowest demand period of the year) the deficit to the 5-year average has increased by 34 Bcf.
Weather forecast for the next two weeks is bullish for natural gas demand, so the deficit to average storage should continue to grow. Keep in mind that natural gas demand will remain much higher than the 5-year average for the reminder of the year and thru all of 2023. Europe's dire shortage of natural gas supply, which was "dire" before Russia invaded Ukraine, will keep U.S. LNG exports at capacity at least through next winter. There is no quick fix for what The Green Bad Deal as done to Europe.
Trading Economics:
"US natural gas futures were trading around the $8.5/MMBtu, recovering from their session lows of $8/MMBtu as investors reacted positively to the latest EIA data showing a storage build primarily in line with expectations. Prices were under heavy pressure earlier this session after an explosion at the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas is set to leave fuel supplies stranded in the domestic market despite soaring international demand. Freeport receives about 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day or roughly 16% of US LNG export capacity. Still, prices remain elevated, having touched an almost 14-year high above the $9.5/MMBtu level this week, amid record power demand in Texas, a decline in output, and an intense rally for natural gas as Russia’s war on Ukraine sends energy markets reeling."
All of my forecast models now assume average HH gas prices of
$7.50 for Q2
$8.00 for Q3
$9.00 for Q4
$7.00 for the year 2023 with Q1 prices over $10.00.
At the time of this post, the HH ngas contract (JUL22) was back to $8.90/MMBtu.