Oil & Gas Prices - July 19
Posted: Tue Jul 19, 2022 8:50 am
Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $1.95 to $100.65/bbl, and Brent is down $1.67 to $104.60/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -22.4c to $7.255/MMBtu.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
The recovery in Russian oil production has continued this month as higher domestic demand offset a minor drop in exports to key markets (Bloomberg)
> The nation’s producers pumped 10.78 MMBbl/d on average from July 1 to 17, according to data from the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK
> That is 0.6% above the June level, according to calculations based on the data, indicating that the pace of the country’s output recovery has slowed, and it is still above the 10.095 MMBbl/d February average of crude and condensate
> Supplies to domestic refineries so far in July reached 5.75 MMBbl/d, around 6% above the average for June
> Russia’s output recovery is important to monitor to see if the nation could support further increases in OPEC+ quotas at the group’s next meeting on August 3
Iraq’s Oil Minister Abdul Jabbar said that he would “like OPEC to retain its tools to measure and control output and maintain the existing balance”
> He also forecasts that oil will trade above $100/bbl for the rest of the year and remain high for the next several years
> Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister commented that there is not a lack of oil in the market but rather a lack of refining capacity to match fuel demand following a meeting with Japan’s Foreign Minister today
Natural Gas
Natural gas futures are trading around 3.5% lower this morning, near $7.255
> Lower-48 dry gas production took a huge hit today with Northeast volumes falling 1.1 Bcf/d, bringing the total rout to 1.7 Bcf/d
> Lower-48 dry gas production now sits near 96.3 Bcf/d after touching a year-to-date high of 98.0 Bcf/d over the weekend
> The gas-weighted cooling degree day total is at 395, which would still place it as the second-most bullish since 2000, behind only 2011
On the power side, ERCOT has approached record-load levels several times over the last few weeks. peak load yesterday was 79.03 GW, 1.1 % lower than yesterday’s forecast of 79.90 GW peak and daily minimum loads were above the 5-year range, and the peak is a new ERCOT record load beating the July 12th value of 78.41 GW
Rystad sees U.S. natural gas output eclipsing 100 Bcf/d by the end of 2022
Natural gas production within the US is on pace to hit an all-time high in the next few months
Production from Haynesville alone is expected to grow by a staggering 2.6 Bcf/d this year compared to 2021, pushing annual output from the play to more than 14 Bcf/d
> WTI is down $1.95 to $100.65/bbl, and Brent is down $1.67 to $104.60/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -22.4c to $7.255/MMBtu.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
The recovery in Russian oil production has continued this month as higher domestic demand offset a minor drop in exports to key markets (Bloomberg)
> The nation’s producers pumped 10.78 MMBbl/d on average from July 1 to 17, according to data from the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK
> That is 0.6% above the June level, according to calculations based on the data, indicating that the pace of the country’s output recovery has slowed, and it is still above the 10.095 MMBbl/d February average of crude and condensate
> Supplies to domestic refineries so far in July reached 5.75 MMBbl/d, around 6% above the average for June
> Russia’s output recovery is important to monitor to see if the nation could support further increases in OPEC+ quotas at the group’s next meeting on August 3
Iraq’s Oil Minister Abdul Jabbar said that he would “like OPEC to retain its tools to measure and control output and maintain the existing balance”
> He also forecasts that oil will trade above $100/bbl for the rest of the year and remain high for the next several years
> Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister commented that there is not a lack of oil in the market but rather a lack of refining capacity to match fuel demand following a meeting with Japan’s Foreign Minister today
Natural Gas
Natural gas futures are trading around 3.5% lower this morning, near $7.255
> Lower-48 dry gas production took a huge hit today with Northeast volumes falling 1.1 Bcf/d, bringing the total rout to 1.7 Bcf/d
> Lower-48 dry gas production now sits near 96.3 Bcf/d after touching a year-to-date high of 98.0 Bcf/d over the weekend
> The gas-weighted cooling degree day total is at 395, which would still place it as the second-most bullish since 2000, behind only 2011
On the power side, ERCOT has approached record-load levels several times over the last few weeks. peak load yesterday was 79.03 GW, 1.1 % lower than yesterday’s forecast of 79.90 GW peak and daily minimum loads were above the 5-year range, and the peak is a new ERCOT record load beating the July 12th value of 78.41 GW
Rystad sees U.S. natural gas output eclipsing 100 Bcf/d by the end of 2022
Natural gas production within the US is on pace to hit an all-time high in the next few months
Production from Haynesville alone is expected to grow by a staggering 2.6 Bcf/d this year compared to 2021, pushing annual output from the play to more than 14 Bcf/d