Raymond James on PBN:
PetroBakken Energy Ltd.
Justin Bouchard P.Eng., CFA | 403.509.0523 |
justin.bouchard@raymondjames.ca
Christopher Cox (Associate) | 403.509.0562 |
christopher.cox@raymondjames.ca
Intermediate Oil & Gas Producers
"Non-Core" Bakken Asset Sale for $427 mln
Event
Yesterday after market, PetroBakken announced it has entered into an
agreement for its second non-core asset sale in 2012, selling 2,900 boe/d of
Bakken production to Crescent Point for gross proceeds of $427 mln. The sale
consists of minority interests in producing properties currently operated by
Crescent Point which are located outside of the area that management
described as non-core. The transaction has an effective date of Jan-01-12 and is
expected to close in mid-March.
Recommendation
We are maintaining our Market Perform rating but increasing our target price
to $15.00 from $14.00. While we are encouraged by the recent initiatives that
the company has undertaken to improve its financial position (this transaction
included), we believe the current share price reflects the fair value of the
company’s assets under a going concern basis.
Analysis
To be clear, we like this deal for PetroBakken. The cash infusion further
improves the company’s financial flexibility and should allow the market to refocus
on what will hopefully be improved operational performance. From the
perspective of PBN, the metrics of the deal also look good; $147,250/boe/d of
production and $40.50/boe of 2P Reserves, relative to the company’s current
trading metrics of $96,045/boe/d and $27.97/boe.
However, while we are positive on the deal, we are cautious on trying to
extrapolate an overall valuation from the transaction. While the company may
view the assets sold in this package as non-core from an operational
perspective, the assets themselves are in the core of the Bakken. In our view,
the price paid was reflective of two things: 1) the high quality of the Bakken
assets sold and 2) the strategic value of the assets to the acquirer. As such, we
don’t believe that applying the metrics from this transaction to the remainder
of PetroBakken’s Bakken assets is warranted.
Valuation
Our $15.00 target price is based on our 2012E Risk Adjusted NAV of $11.76 per
share and a 4.0x multiple to our 2013 cash flow per share estimate of $4.51. In
setting our target price, we have applied a 50% weighting to each.