Sweet 16 Update

[dan_s]

The Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio is now up 15.58% year-to-date. [S&P 500 is up 8.24% YTD]

The five stocks that were dropped from the Sweet 16 on January 1st (XEC, FXEN, PBEGF, PMGLF, PXP) are all up more than 20%. All five are still trading below my estimated Fair Value. We continue to track them on the S-16 spreadsheet, which I just updated and posted under the Sweet 16 Tab. An updated profile and forecast model for Cimarex Energy (XEC) is now available under the Watch List Tab. Petrominerales (PMG.TO or PMGLF) looks very good to me. The company is heavily weighted to oil, trading at half my Fair Value estimate.

EPG Members can find our current Net Income and Cash Flow forecast model for each company under the Sweet 16 Tab. You just need to click on the company logos. Each model includes my Fair Value calculation. If you download the Excel version to your computer, you can play with the production volumes and commodity prices at the bottom of the spreadsheet to see how it affects earnings, cash flow and the Fair Value. Macros are built into the spreadsheets.

CLR made a big move last week, up more than $14/share. I am expecting very strong 4th qtr results from CLR.

EXXI: Waiting on completion results from MMR, the operator of the Davy Jones well.

MIND: Should make a run heading into release of their 4th quarter results in late March. [FYE is January 31st]

I have three companies, which I believe are "prime takeover targets" that I want to move into the Sweet 16.
HP and PTEN will be moved to our new "Drillers Watch List" on March 1st. CRZO is the other one most likely to be moved back to the Watch List since it has so much natural gas production. CRZO is way below my Fair Value estimate and they do have nice wells coming on in the Eagle Ford and Niobrara.

[dan_s]

Several of our Sweet 16 will release 4th quarter results this week. I will update the forecasts models as fast I can and post them under the company logos under our Sweet 16 Tab. Check under "Latest News" on our home page for alerts.