NS Explosion Update - Sept 28
Posted: Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:17 am
Nore from TPH
Nord Stream Impacted by Explosions
Further risk to Russian flows front and center
Yesterday’s reports highlighted multiple Nord Stream gas leaks caused by two explosions in the Baltic Sea, suspected to be sabotage, sending TTF up as much as 19% despite flows to Europe running at nil for nearly a month. NS1 flows have been shut-in indefinitely since early September following maintenance, with NS2 having been previously shelved at the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Nordstream flows were nil, the suspected sabotage is further reminder of the risks to remaining Russian imports (as well as non-Russian import infrastructure in the area) which we estimate in the 4-4.5bcfd range in recent weeks – risk that we expect will keep an elevated risk premium in TTF and JKM pricing through the upcoming winter despite legwork done on re-filling storage balances across the continent.
Nord Stream Impacted by Explosions
Further risk to Russian flows front and center
Yesterday’s reports highlighted multiple Nord Stream gas leaks caused by two explosions in the Baltic Sea, suspected to be sabotage, sending TTF up as much as 19% despite flows to Europe running at nil for nearly a month. NS1 flows have been shut-in indefinitely since early September following maintenance, with NS2 having been previously shelved at the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Nordstream flows were nil, the suspected sabotage is further reminder of the risks to remaining Russian imports (as well as non-Russian import infrastructure in the area) which we estimate in the 4-4.5bcfd range in recent weeks – risk that we expect will keep an elevated risk premium in TTF and JKM pricing through the upcoming winter despite legwork done on re-filling storage balances across the continent.