Energy Prospectus

Reuters: White House rules out ban on natural gas exports this winter.

The White House has ruled out any ban or curbs on natural-gas exports this winter, in a bid to help alleviate energy shortages in Europe, according to two people directly involved in the discussions. In March, U.S. President Joe Biden committed to deliver 15 billion cubic metres (bcm) more of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has already surpassed that goal. Further White House analysis has only cemented support for ongoing exports, the sources said, although rising energy costs and a colder-than-expected winter could test Biden's commitment. A ban has not been seriously considered, said a U.S. official. Biden and his aides are bracing for the prospect that inflation-fatigued Americans will pay high home-heating bills this winter.

Our Federal Government does not have direct control over LNG exports. Joe Biden's use of the word "committed" is just political BS.

This helps AR, CRK, EQT, RRC, SBOW and CTRA the most, but all of our Sweet 16 have some unhedged natrual gas to sell. Miss La Nina is working up a winter weather program that could result in a "Super Spike" in natural gas prices in Q1 2023.

Natural gas has pulled back considerably since the fire at the Freeport Plant. Could the lack of the Freeport buy order for 2bcf/d for natural gas be the cause for this weakness. In addition Cove Point is down for three weeks. If 2 bcf/d comes out of the market and Freeport buys this excess, shouldn't gas prices begin to firm up. I am interested what the Board thinks about this conclusion. I don't remember the day of the fire, but the natural gas might have been around $10 per MCF during that period.

Technically, nat gas has been way oversold. Yesterday began the reversal. I don't think you will see nat gas trading at $ 6.56 again for a long time. Charts would suggest near $10 by Thanksgiving or sooner.

Just the fact that he had to say he won't ban it is total bs.

Mr President: Stop fighting pipelines you demented fool

Any information on the 5%+ drop for CRK today? Seems strange.

probably just the usual gas volatility based on this week's build. Good time to sell puts.

If you attended today's AEGIS webinar, they estimated that there is a 19% chance we see $15/MMBtu ngas prices in the U.S. this winter. Obviously, it would take a much colder than normal winter for that to occur. My guess is that a normal December in the U.S. will push Q1 ngas over $10.