Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Nov 4
Posted: Fri Nov 04, 2022 4:40 pm
ESTE closed today at $16.02
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Earthstone Energy and it will be posted to the EPG website this evening.
Earthstone beat my Q3 forecast by a wide margin and they have increased their production guidance for Q4. They also committed to run a 5-rig drilling program through 2023 which should increase production from 100,000 Boepd in Q4 to ~110,000 Boepd in 2023 (my guess).
My stock valuation increases by $2 to $38/share.
Truist Financial rates ESTE a BUY with a price target of $26.00 < Neal Dingmann is using lower oil, gas and NGL prices than what I am using in my models and he still estimates Earthstone's 2023 operating cash flow per share to be $9.49. IMO a company with this much running room that should generate over $150 million per quarter of FCF deserves a price target of at least 4X CFPS.
Earthstone is an "Aggressive Growth" company doing it through acquisitions and now a ramped-up drilling program that will be fully funded by operating cash flow AND they should generate over $500 million of free cash flow this year and my FCF forecast for 2023 is over $700 million.
ESTE is now my Top Pick in the Sweet 16.
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Earthstone Energy and it will be posted to the EPG website this evening.
Earthstone beat my Q3 forecast by a wide margin and they have increased their production guidance for Q4. They also committed to run a 5-rig drilling program through 2023 which should increase production from 100,000 Boepd in Q4 to ~110,000 Boepd in 2023 (my guess).
My stock valuation increases by $2 to $38/share.
Truist Financial rates ESTE a BUY with a price target of $26.00 < Neal Dingmann is using lower oil, gas and NGL prices than what I am using in my models and he still estimates Earthstone's 2023 operating cash flow per share to be $9.49. IMO a company with this much running room that should generate over $150 million per quarter of FCF deserves a price target of at least 4X CFPS.
Earthstone is an "Aggressive Growth" company doing it through acquisitions and now a ramped-up drilling program that will be fully funded by operating cash flow AND they should generate over $500 million of free cash flow this year and my FCF forecast for 2023 is over $700 million.
ESTE is now my Top Pick in the Sweet 16.