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U.S. Oil production is not going to bounce back - Nov 11

Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2022 2:10 pm
by dan_s
As I have been saying for months in my newsletter and weekly podcasts, U.S. oil production growth will not get back to pre-pandemic level as long as Biden's War on Fossil Fuels continues. The experts over at EIA finally get it.

OilPrice.com: "US Crude Growth Plummets in 2023. Citing inflation and supply chain constraints, the Energy Information Administration lowered its forecast for 2023 US crude production growth by a whopping 21%, expecting next year’s increase to be 480,000 b/d."

U.S. oil production peaked in November 2019 at 12,860,000 bpd with several weeks spiking to over 13 million bpd prior to the pandemic.

U.S. oil production has flatlined around 12 million bpd and due to winter weather is likely to decline in Q1. Supply Chain issues (primarily tubulars) and lack of good crews for drilling rigs and completions may make EIA's production growth target too optimistic.

This is why investing in upstream companies with lots of low-risk / high-return development drilling locations ("running room") and strong operating cash flow that fully funds their drilling programs should be extremely profitable during this global energy crisis.