CRZO is a "Keeper"

[dan_s]

Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO): An updated Net Income and Cash Flow Forecast with my revised Fair Value estimate is now available under the Sweet 16 Tab.

I was planning to drop CRZO from the Sweet 16 but after seeing their 4th quarter results, I will leave it in. They should be reporting a big jump in oil production in the 1st quarter. Q4 oil production was 3,114 bopd. The company's exit rate at 12-31-2011 was over 6,300 bopd, primary from several high rate Eagle Ford wells coming on in December. This one is worth watching for awhile. They also have an interest in a North Sea project that could add over 4,000 bopd in Q4 of 2012.

One reason I like CRZO is that they have less than 40 million shares outstanding. EPS doesn't mean much on this one. Focus on CFPS. CFPS in 2012 s/b over $7.00. My initial rough estimate for 2013 is CFPS over $11.00.

I was planning to "promote" KOG back to the S-16 but (once again) they under-delivered. I do think KOG is a prime takeover target since it is such a nice Bakken package but it continues to have operational issues.