Sweet 16 Update - Nov 26
Posted: Sat Nov 26, 2022 12:02 pm
As of November 25, the Sweet 16 is up 61.62% YTD and the S&P 500 is down 15.53% YTD. The Energy Sector is the only sector up this year.
The up-to-date Sweet 16 summary spreadsheet has been posted to the EPG homepage.
> It shows my current stock price valuation for each company compared to First Call's price targets.
There are two tabs.
> Under tab 1 you can see each company's market-cap, net book value as of 9-30-2022, actual GAAP earnings per share for 2021 and Q1 through Q3 for 2022, my adjusted earnings per share forecasts for Q4 2022 and 2023, the current PE ratio based on my 2023 forecast, and share price/2022 operating cash flow per share for each company. My stock valuations are based on what I believe are reasonable multiples of operating cash flow for each company.
> As a group the Sweet 16 is trading for a PE ratio of just 3.79. That is insane for a group of this quality.
> Under tab 2 you can see how each stock has done since 1/1/2021 and since 1/1/2022.
> As a group the Sweet 16 is trading at a discount of 86% to my current valuations.
> On the far right, you can see proved reserves (P1) for each company and the PV10 valuation of those reserves based on SEC guidelines as of 12-31-2021. The PV10 valuations should be much higher as of 12-31-2022, especially for the "gassers".
I am finishing up the next edition of The View from Houston newsletter today, so I will save individual company comments for the newsletter. They all reported solid financial results for Q3.
The up-to-date Sweet 16 summary spreadsheet has been posted to the EPG homepage.
> It shows my current stock price valuation for each company compared to First Call's price targets.
There are two tabs.
> Under tab 1 you can see each company's market-cap, net book value as of 9-30-2022, actual GAAP earnings per share for 2021 and Q1 through Q3 for 2022, my adjusted earnings per share forecasts for Q4 2022 and 2023, the current PE ratio based on my 2023 forecast, and share price/2022 operating cash flow per share for each company. My stock valuations are based on what I believe are reasonable multiples of operating cash flow for each company.
> As a group the Sweet 16 is trading for a PE ratio of just 3.79. That is insane for a group of this quality.
> Under tab 2 you can see how each stock has done since 1/1/2021 and since 1/1/2022.
> As a group the Sweet 16 is trading at a discount of 86% to my current valuations.
> On the far right, you can see proved reserves (P1) for each company and the PV10 valuation of those reserves based on SEC guidelines as of 12-31-2021. The PV10 valuations should be much higher as of 12-31-2022, especially for the "gassers".
I am finishing up the next edition of The View from Houston newsletter today, so I will save individual company comments for the newsletter. They all reported solid financial results for Q3.