Keybank cut to overweight from 26 to 21 today
Only gasser down, so far
CRK got a downgrade
Re: CRK got a downgrade
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3915020-c ... 16567.9993
Most interesting is the comments of the readers below the article. My take is the article is not credible.My money is on Dan the oil man LoL
Most interesting is the comments of the readers below the article. My take is the article is not credible.My money is on Dan the oil man LoL
Re: CRK got a downgrade
Comstock is going to report VERY GOOD Q4 and 2022 full year results. < This is already locked in
> Q4 EPS should be within the range of $1.20 to $1.50 per share with operating cash flow of $2.00 to $2.30 per share. < Realized ngas price s/b ~$5.00/mcf, net of cash settlement on their hedges. All of the "Bad Hedges" expire at the end of December.
> 2022 free cash flow of more than $700 million has the balance sheet in great shape.
> It has lots of running room: Over 1,600 low/risk high/return HZ development drilling locations that will generate outstanding financial results even if ngas were to average $4.00/mcf.
My stock valuations based on the following HH ngas prices in 2023:
> $6.50/MMBtu: $42
> $5.50/MMBtu: $39
> $5.00/MMBtu: $37
> $4.50/MMBtu: $36
> $4.00/MMBtu: $34
If 2023 HH ngas were to average $3.00, Comstock would still generate more than $1 Billion of operating cash flow, which is more than enough to cover their capex. < In 2021, with less production and a realized ngas price of $2.79/mcf, Comstock generated $908.2 million of operating cash flow
This is something that the Wall Street Gang is missing: Comstock has a lot of un-dedicated gas, so they can take advantage of high spot market prices that are almost certainly going to occur this winter. When Winter Storm Uri hit Texas/Louisiana, Comstock sold some gas for over $50/mcf into the spot market.
> Q4 EPS should be within the range of $1.20 to $1.50 per share with operating cash flow of $2.00 to $2.30 per share. < Realized ngas price s/b ~$5.00/mcf, net of cash settlement on their hedges. All of the "Bad Hedges" expire at the end of December.
> 2022 free cash flow of more than $700 million has the balance sheet in great shape.
> It has lots of running room: Over 1,600 low/risk high/return HZ development drilling locations that will generate outstanding financial results even if ngas were to average $4.00/mcf.
My stock valuations based on the following HH ngas prices in 2023:
> $6.50/MMBtu: $42
> $5.50/MMBtu: $39
> $5.00/MMBtu: $37
> $4.50/MMBtu: $36
> $4.00/MMBtu: $34
If 2023 HH ngas were to average $3.00, Comstock would still generate more than $1 Billion of operating cash flow, which is more than enough to cover their capex. < In 2021, with less production and a realized ngas price of $2.79/mcf, Comstock generated $908.2 million of operating cash flow
This is something that the Wall Street Gang is missing: Comstock has a lot of un-dedicated gas, so they can take advantage of high spot market prices that are almost certainly going to occur this winter. When Winter Storm Uri hit Texas/Louisiana, Comstock sold some gas for over $50/mcf into the spot market.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: CRK got a downgrade
Weird trading today
NG has bounced back up 6.8%. But CRK and SBOW are weak today (again) crk down 3.1 % and SBOW down 6.1 %
NG has bounced back up 6.8%. But CRK and SBOW are weak today (again) crk down 3.1 % and SBOW down 6.1 %
Re: CRK got a downgrade
They are both going to report very strong Q4 results and their year-end reserve reports will show PV10 Net Asset Values above the current share prices.
There is still lots of winter weather ahead that will drain ngas storage.
There is still lots of winter weather ahead that will drain ngas storage.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: CRK got a downgrade
Down again , even though NG recovered. Will it hit single digits?