Riley Exploration Per (REPX) Update - Dec 23

[dan_s]

I hope to finish updating the forecasts for all of the Small-Caps today.

I just posted an updated forecast and profile for REPX to the EPG website.
> Over 20% annual production growth fully funded by operating cash flow.
> They pay a nice dividend
> Lots of running room and a potential CO2 flood that could significantly increase proved reserves.

Riley has a fiscal year-end of September 30. As of 9-30-2022 the company's PV10 Net Asset Value of just Proved Reserves (P1) was $36.99/share.

Keep in mind that the year-end reserve reports based on SEC guidelines are very conservative.

At the time of this post REPX was trading at $28.12.

[ChuckGeb]

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER ENDING SEPTEMBER 30, 2022

Completed change in fiscal year end to December 31st from September 30th

[dan_s]

They paid for an updated reserve report as of 9-30-2022.

[ChuckGeb]

Taking a deeper dive into the Sept 30 reserves revealed a couple of surprising factors to consider for what will soon be reported at year end for all the EPG companies. The company prepared Pv10 value used in your reserves per share is based on estimated reserves at NYMEX pricing which yielded $874 million. The reserves computed using SEC guidelines is actually $700million higher. The reserves are reconciled in the company’s presentation. The difference is primarily that the SEC pricing (12month average) of $92.16 oil and $6.13 gas is much higher than current NYMEX pricing.

The message is clearly that upcoming reported SEC reserves will be significantly higher than NYMEX unless o&g prices return to levels higher than the12 month average thus being anything but conservative at current pricing. Quite surprising.