Energy Prospectus

1-10-2023: Mizuho Initiates Coverage On Earthstone Energy with Neutral Rating, Announces Price Target of $19 < This PT is less than 3X Mizuho's operating cash flow per share forecast for 2023.

Since 11/3/2022 three highly respected analysts (Mizuho, RBC Capital and Truist Financial) have submitted updated reports and price targets to TipRanks.
Here are the averages of their forecasts for 2023:
Revenues: $1,910 million < My forecast is $1,954 million.
Earnings per share: $5.68 < My forecast is $4.61 (my DD&A expense estimate is probably too high)
Operating cash flow per share: $7.84 < My forecast is $8.45

So, today ESTE is trading at less than 2X operating cash flow per share based on forecasts made by three very smart energy sector analysts.

ESTE is my Top Pick for 2023, primarily because of their impressive year-over-year production growth.
> 13.8% in 2020
> 62.2% in 2021
> 209.7% in 2022 thanks to three significant acquisitions that closed last year.
> My estimate of 43.3% for 2023 even if they make no more acquisitions.

My updated valuation is $34.00 using commodity pricing (net of hedges) for 2023 of $81/bbl for oil, $3.25/mcf for natural gas and $30/bbl for NGLs.

On January 13th ESTE closed at $13.83

When will 4th qtr. 2022 earnings be released?

Q4 earnings report is estimated by Fidelity to be 3/8/23

Q4 results always take much longer to come out because of all the Sarbanes-Oxley testing requirements. Most upstream companies will provide an operations update in February, which will allow me to fine tune my forecast models.