Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 31
Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2023 10:13 am
Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $0.61 to $77.29/bbl, and Brent is down $0.91 to $83.99/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -0.6c to $2.671/MMBtu.
Both moved into the green soon after the markets opened.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
Oil extends losses to trade at nearly three-week lows
> March ’23 WTI lost 61c this morning to trade around $77/Bbl
> Crude prices head for a third-straight monthly loss despite optimism for a recovery in Chinese demand
> OPEC+ is set to meet tomorrow to discuss crude production levels; the group's current output policy is expected to be unchanged (Reuters)
> The market expects the U.S. Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday
> EU and G7 are working on imposing a price cap on Russian fuel exports on February 5, along with sanctions
> Similar sanctions on Russian crude in December don't seem to have reduced flows (still at nearly 3 MMBbl/d), and the nation plans to increase diesel exports next month < IMO the EU and G7 price caps and sanctions are looking more and more like political BS, since very few countries fear the elites in the EU and G7. China and India appear to be willing to buy every drop of Russian oil they can get.
Russia plans more diesel exports next month as EU sanctions kick in (BBG)
> Shipments from Russia’s key Baltic and Black Sea ports are set to surge to 2.74 million tons in February, a 2% hike on January’s planned flows, the highest export rate since January 2020
> However, the EU's ban on Russian refined oil products, which starts on February 5, creates uncertainties about how this would affect Russia's exports, given that the EU has long been Russia's largest market
Strikes persist at France’s TotalEnergies refineries (BBG)
> The strikes inhibit deliveries of diesel and gasoline from two TotalEnergies SE plants as protests enter their third round this month
> The protests come in the midst of workers' pension disagreements and ahead of the EU's embargo on Russian refined products starting on February 5
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices are trading lower this morning, around $2.67
Natural gas futures head for a 40%, or $1.82/MMBtu monthly loss, the biggest since January 2001
Weather forecasts have shifted warmer again
The Northeast and Midwest regions forecasts are again driving most of the warmer shift, while the South Central and Southeast regions have shifted cooler
Lower-48 temperatures are well below normal this week but are expected to rise above the ten-year average temperature by this weekend
Proved reserves of natural gas reached a new record high (EIA)
According to the EIA’s latest report on oil and gas reserves for 2021, proved natural gas reserves increased 32% to 625.4 Tcf
The largest increase in reserves came from Alaska, which tripled from 36.5 to 99.8 Tcf due to the development of several infrastructure projects in the state
Texas has the largest amount of proven reserves, with 149 Tcf of gas, while Pennsylvania has the second most with 106 Tcf
Russian LNG exports to Europe increased by 20% in 2022 (Reuters)
While Europe’s pipeline imports of Russian gas have fallen almost to zero, LNG imports have increased by 20% from 2021 levels
More than half of Russia’s total LNG exports were delivered to Europe
No production issues caused by frigid weather yet (Houston Chronicle)
Icy conditions are expected across a large portion of Texas this week, including the Permian Basin, which led to concerns about production shut-ins
The Railroad Commission said that “We haven’t received any reports of major productions disruptions”
However, some trucks have been unable to operate due to ice on highways and roads
> WTI is down $0.61 to $77.29/bbl, and Brent is down $0.91 to $83.99/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -0.6c to $2.671/MMBtu.
Both moved into the green soon after the markets opened.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
Oil extends losses to trade at nearly three-week lows
> March ’23 WTI lost 61c this morning to trade around $77/Bbl
> Crude prices head for a third-straight monthly loss despite optimism for a recovery in Chinese demand
> OPEC+ is set to meet tomorrow to discuss crude production levels; the group's current output policy is expected to be unchanged (Reuters)
> The market expects the U.S. Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday
> EU and G7 are working on imposing a price cap on Russian fuel exports on February 5, along with sanctions
> Similar sanctions on Russian crude in December don't seem to have reduced flows (still at nearly 3 MMBbl/d), and the nation plans to increase diesel exports next month < IMO the EU and G7 price caps and sanctions are looking more and more like political BS, since very few countries fear the elites in the EU and G7. China and India appear to be willing to buy every drop of Russian oil they can get.
Russia plans more diesel exports next month as EU sanctions kick in (BBG)
> Shipments from Russia’s key Baltic and Black Sea ports are set to surge to 2.74 million tons in February, a 2% hike on January’s planned flows, the highest export rate since January 2020
> However, the EU's ban on Russian refined oil products, which starts on February 5, creates uncertainties about how this would affect Russia's exports, given that the EU has long been Russia's largest market
Strikes persist at France’s TotalEnergies refineries (BBG)
> The strikes inhibit deliveries of diesel and gasoline from two TotalEnergies SE plants as protests enter their third round this month
> The protests come in the midst of workers' pension disagreements and ahead of the EU's embargo on Russian refined products starting on February 5
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices are trading lower this morning, around $2.67
Natural gas futures head for a 40%, or $1.82/MMBtu monthly loss, the biggest since January 2001
Weather forecasts have shifted warmer again
The Northeast and Midwest regions forecasts are again driving most of the warmer shift, while the South Central and Southeast regions have shifted cooler
Lower-48 temperatures are well below normal this week but are expected to rise above the ten-year average temperature by this weekend
Proved reserves of natural gas reached a new record high (EIA)
According to the EIA’s latest report on oil and gas reserves for 2021, proved natural gas reserves increased 32% to 625.4 Tcf
The largest increase in reserves came from Alaska, which tripled from 36.5 to 99.8 Tcf due to the development of several infrastructure projects in the state
Texas has the largest amount of proven reserves, with 149 Tcf of gas, while Pennsylvania has the second most with 106 Tcf
Russian LNG exports to Europe increased by 20% in 2022 (Reuters)
While Europe’s pipeline imports of Russian gas have fallen almost to zero, LNG imports have increased by 20% from 2021 levels
More than half of Russia’s total LNG exports were delivered to Europe
No production issues caused by frigid weather yet (Houston Chronicle)
Icy conditions are expected across a large portion of Texas this week, including the Permian Basin, which led to concerns about production shut-ins
The Railroad Commission said that “We haven’t received any reports of major productions disruptions”
However, some trucks have been unable to operate due to ice on highways and roads