EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 2

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dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 2

Post by dan_s »

My Wild Ass Guess was 150 Bcf draw.

Per EIA:
Working gas in storage was 2,583 Bcf as of Friday, January 27, 2023, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 151 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 222 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 163 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,420 Bcf.
At 2,583 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

My Wild Ass Guess ("WAG") for the week ending Feb 3 is a draw of 210 Bcf. Texas has consumed a lot more gas this week than the previous week.
I also expect some well freeze offs in Appalachia this weekend.

There are nine weeks left in the winter heating season.
> 5-Year average draws are 817 Bcf for the period.
> My WAG is that this year's draws will be ~900 Bcf over the last nine weeks, with 400 of that coming over the next two weeks.

My WAG for storage level on March 31, 2023 is within the range of 1,650 - 1,750 Bcf, which compares to the 5-year average of 1,540 Bcf. The U.S. natural gas market now exceeds 100 Bcf per day of demand, 36.5 Tcf per year., so market forces will quickly adjust to a relatively tiny surplus to begin the refill season.
> Total storage capacity is 4,200 Bcf.
> As LNG export capacity grows, we need more gas in storage at the beginning of each winter.

Getting Freeport LNG export facility back online will have a big impact on natural gas prices this year.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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