U.S. Shale Oil Production could peak within 2 years

[dan_s]

You should all read this article: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/W ... -Days.html

OilPrice.com: Will U.S. Shale Ever Return To Its Glory Days? < Probably not.
By David Messler - Feb 02, 2023, 7:00 PM CST

U.S. shale production has seen a fall-off in productivity in some basins in recent years.
Though output isn’t expected to fall off a cliff, America’s shale industry may never return to its glory days.
With production slowing, WTI prices are expected to face a supply-side bump.
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You should all read the article at the link carefully.
> As I have posted here and in my newsletters many times: All oil fields ever discovered reach peak production and then go on steady decline when most of the Tier One drilling locations are completed. It happens because Tier Two and Tier Three wells cannot offset the steady decline of the Tier One wells.
> U.S. oil production has not bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. Why? Because it already appears we cannot complete enough wells to offset declines of previously completed wells.
> IEA and EIA continue to forecast that U.S. oil production, primarily from horizontal shale wells, will increase steadily passed at least 2030.
> IEA has a long history of underestimating demand for oil-based fuels and other products.
> Most energy sector analysts see oil demand exceeding supply within a few months. So do I.

MY TAKE: This is setting up a "Paradigm Shift" that will send oil prices much higher, maybe in just a few months, but definitely within a few years. The new paradigms that (a) global oil demand will increase year-after-year for many more decades since the "Energy Transition" will have little impact on oil consumption and (b) that the "cheap oil" has been harvested. If this new mindset sinks in, we should get the "multiple expansions" that take stocks like our Sweet 16 a lot higher than 3X operating cash flow. This why I want to invest in upstream companies with a lot of "running room".