Global Oil Demand going up - Feb 14

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Demand Projected to Hit More Than 102MM Barrels Per Day in 2024

By Andreas Exarheas
Rigzone Staff
Monday, February 13, 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, according to its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).

Total world consumption will hit 100.47 million barrels per day this year and 102.26 million barrels per day in 2024, the February STEO projected. The STEO showed that demand is expected to hit 99.65 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 100.05 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 100.99 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 101.19 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Consumption will come in at 101.56 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 101.77 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024, and 102.85 million barrels per day in both the third and fourth quarters of next year, according to the STEO, which showed that total demand was 99.36 million barrels per day in 2022.

“Global liquids fuel consumption in the forecast increases from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 102.3 million barrels per day in 2024, driven primarily by growth in China and other non-OECD countries,” the February STEO noted.

“However, significant uncertainty around our demand forecast remains based on possible outcomes for the evolving global economic conditions and China’s pivot away from a zero-Covid strategy,” the STEO added.

“We forecast that the reversal of restrictions will contribute to oil demand in China increasing by 0.7 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 0.4 million barrels per day in 2024. We expect OECD oil demand to remain largely flat over the forecast period, as inflationary economic pressures continue to limit GDP and oil demand growth and as the oil intensity of OECD economies declines,” the STEO continued.

January STEO, IEA

In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA anticipated that demand would be 100.48 million barrels per day in 2023 and 102.20 million barrels per day in 2024.

That STEO showed that demand was expected to hit 100.56 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 100.34 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 100.53 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 100.47 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In the January STEO, consumption was anticipated to hit 102.18 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 101.93 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2024, 102.41 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2024, and 102.29 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024.

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest oil market report, which was released in January, global oil demand is set to rise by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2023.

“This year could see oil demand rise by 1.9 million barrels per day to reach 101.7 million barrels per day, the highest ever, tightening the balances as Russian supply slows under the full impact of sanctions,” the IEA stated in the report.

“China will drive nearly half this global demand growth even as the shape and speed of its reopening remains uncertain,” the IEA added in the report.