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Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

Posted: Wed Mar 01, 2023 3:50 pm
by dan_s
Baytex is a possible addition to the Sweet 16. I need to spend a day building a Proforma forecast model on Baytex to come up with a valuation.

Size matters in this business for several reasons. One of them is that when companies get over 100,000 Boepd of production, they get a lot more analysts covering them. That's why I remain very bullish on ESTE and PR.

Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

Posted: Wed Mar 01, 2023 8:35 pm
by tlengoc
Looks like a law firm is investigating the merger between BTE and ROCC:

https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/ro ... ranger-oil

This might not be over.

Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

Posted: Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:50 am
by Fraser921
THANK YOU HAWKER AND CHUCK

Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

Posted: Thu Mar 02, 2023 7:53 am
by Fraser921
tlen > They picked up Dan's target price

In particular, according to an analysis of Wall Street price targets for Ranger in the last 90 days published on Seeking Alpha, there is an average target price of $58.40 per share, and a high price target of $74.00 per share. Both are above the deal price, which indicates that Wall Street analysts think the deal consideration is too low.

Dan, you can be an expert witness. You are usually too high with valuations but this miss was ridiculous. No takeover premium whatsoever

Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

Posted: Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:35 am
by Fraser921
Raymond James Downgrades Baytex Energy to Market Perform, Lowers Price Target to C$5.5

Baytex Energy Kept at Market Perform at BMO after US$2.5 Billion Acquisition; Price Target Kept at C$7.50



Baytex Energy Upgraded to Buy at TD, Shares Rebound
BY MT Newswires
— 10:29 AM ET 03/01/2023

10:29 AM EST, 03/01/2023 (MT Newswires) -- Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Securities.

Analyst Menno Hulshof maintained a target price of $7 on shares of the Calgary-based oil and gas company.

Hulshof said Tuesday's sell-off in the stock was unjustified, following the acquisition of Eagle Ford pure-play Ranger Oil.

"We believe the market reaction to the transaction was overly punitive and believe the positives outweigh the negatives," the analyst said in a note to clients.

"Yesterday's excessive share-price pullback has boosted our target return to 34% which, in turn, merits an upgrade to Buy."

Stifel FirstEnergy on Wednesday reiterated its hold rating on the shares of Baytex Energy (BTE) while lowering its price target to C$7.00 from C$8.00 after the oil and gas producer agreed to acquire Ranger Oil (ROCC) for US$2.5 billion in cash, shares and debt to expand in the Eagle Ford shales in Texas.

Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

Posted: Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:39 am
by Fraser921
forbes article

https://open.substack.com/pub/blackmon/p/forbes-piece-baytexranger-oil-combination?r=nh748&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email

Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

Posted: Thu Mar 02, 2023 8:51 am
by dan_s
AGAIN: This deal is a MERGER, not a SALE. My current valuations ("price targets") are what I believe a company should sell for in a negotiated sale.

Why is a merger different? Because the shareholdersin Ranger are going to get a lot of shares in Baytex, so they still own the assets of the company, but in a much larger entity. Plus, they get a nice cash "kicker".

There are always a few lawyers that try to make a buck off these deals, ignore them.

Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

Posted: Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:07 pm
by Hawker99
Here is a video interview from today on BNN TV with a top Canadian oil fund manager.

He likes BTE and the deal of them merging with ROCC.

Those who currently own ROCC may want to hang on to BTE shares when the deal closes

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/very-meaningful-upside-ahead-for-the-energy-market-eric-nuttall~2639004