Crescent Point (CPG) Valuation Update - Mar 5

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Crescent Point (CPG) Valuation Update - Mar 5

Post by dan_s »

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for CPG and posted it to the EPG website home page.

CPG closed at $7.32US on Friday, March 3
My valuation increases by $0.50US to $12.00 US. My forecast model is in Canadian dollars and I just multiple my Cdn valuation ($16.00) by 0.75 to get a reasonable stock price target in US dollars.

Since CPG announced Q4 results and updated guidance for 2023 on March 2, four analysts have adjusted their price targets to the following:
All in US dollars
$12.00 < BMO Capital
$9.55 < RBC Capital
$11.38 < Stifel Nicolaus
$10.65 < National Bank of Canada

In Canadian dollars:
2022 Results: Net Income of $2.67/share and Operating Cash Flow of $4.02/share
2023 My Forecast: Net Income of $1.64/share and Operating Cash Flow of $3.84/Share < First Call's EPS forecast is $2.03Cdn

CPG's production guidance for 2023 is 138,000 to 142,000 Boepd (5% to 8% YOY increase)
Production mix should be approximately 51% crude oil, 29% NGLs and 20% natural gas.
~15% of oil, with floors of $90 to $96 and ceilings of $105 to $121 Cdn
~20% of natural gas at $4.48 to $5.13 Cdn < My forecast assumes realized gas prices will be in the $2.50 to $4.00 Cdn range.
Only 10% to 12% of the Company's revenues will be from natural gas this year, so oil prices are the primary driver for this one.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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