carnage in gassers continues

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Fraser921
Posts: 2872
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

carnage in gassers continues

Post by Fraser921 »

CRK with a 11 handle, I think it hits single digits. As I mentioned before CRK was 8 when NG was $ 4. Why is it at 11 with NG at 2.50? If prices don't improve, we have to look for a dividend cut.

They can't just stop on a dime. So they are adding to the glut by selling into weak prices.

The winter weather has been a complete disaster. Ive been talking about this since mid december

Now we have to hope for a hot summer.

PS: The board needs contrary opinion to balance things out. Don't be triggered by my profound musings.

Don't be a bagholder. 8-)
ChuckGeb
Posts: 902
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: carnage in gassers continues

Post by ChuckGeb »

IMHO CRK will be closer to 18 than 8 by year end. With most balance sheets strong the public companies can drop rigs, drill and not complete, or temporarily curtail gas production. The independents will be constrained by rising interest rates and cost of capital, they can’t afford to drill wells at current prices. I think the market will be back in balance going into next winter. The wild card is hurricane season. We dodged significant storms in GOM last year and had high prices. Mother Nature can wreak havoc on many and create opportunities for others.unfortunately the majority of LNG facilities are centered around the bulls eye for a lot of storms. Expect volatility for the duration.
Fraser921
Posts: 2872
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: carnage in gassers continues

Post by Fraser921 »

Im calling for single digits for crk in 4 months! CRK is free cash flow negative right now. Dividend cut may happen if low rates continue. If that happens, how low will it go?
Fraser921
Posts: 2872
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: carnage in gassers continues

Post by Fraser921 »

Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR), a subsidiary of Enverus, released its latest Macro Forecaster, a report developed for the financial services industry, yesterday. The new report is focused on the outlook for near-term oil and gas prices. Unfortunately, there wasn’t a lot of good news for the natural gas sector. According to Al Salazar, senior vice president at EIR, “Natural gas production has been resilient in 2023 in comparison to 2022, and we expect 2.9 Bcf/d of growth over the summer. Some of the growth will be offset by incremental LNG demand from Freeport LNG terminal’s restart and increased price-induced power burn growth, but natural gas prices will be under intense pressure.”
ChuckGeb
Posts: 902
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: carnage in gassers continues

Post by ChuckGeb »

It takes some time to right the ship but I believe the large gas producers are more nimble than they are getting credit for. Look for better dynamics going into next year and keep some dry powder when you see that the worm has turned positive. For now I am staying pat.
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