Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 9

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dan_s
Posts: 34279
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 9

Post by dan_s »

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $0.31 to $76.97/bbl, and Brent is up $0.39 to $83.05/bbl.
> Natural gas is up 5.4c to $2.605/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Oil continues to trade range-bound following Fed’s hawkish remarks
April ’23 WTI gained 31c this morning to trade around $77/Bbl
Crude remains under pressure following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks on Tuesday with expectations for higher-than-expected rate hikes
Powell reiterated that the bank might raise interest rates more than expected, but he said that a decision hadn’t been taken for the March meeting

Oil prices extended Tuesday’s losses yesterday despite EIA reporting the first crude stock draw of the year
Additionally, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly after strengthening to a three-month high earlier this week

U.S. pipeline regulator orders lower pressure on Keystone pipeline following the December spill (BBG)
PHMSA said on Tuesday that it is requiring TC Energy Company to lower the operational pressure on the Keystone pipeline following the 13 MBbl spill in December
The regulator added that the company’s "operating, maintenance, and/or integrity management programs may be inadequate to address the repetitious pattern of failures related to the original design, manufacture, and construction of Keystone pipeline"
The pipeline, which can transport as much as 640 MBbl/d of heavy Canadian oil to the Gulf Coast, now risks a reduction in supplies just as U.S. refiners ramp up ahead of summer when annual gasoline consumption tends to peak

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices are up slightly, trading around $2.61
Freeport LNG received approval to restart Train 1 yesterday, which should allow the facility to ramp up to 2.0 Bcf/d

Weather forecasts are mostly unchanged, with models continuing to forecast below-normal March temperatures

Lower gas prices leading to a reduction in shale deals (Reuters)
The acquisitions market for gas producers has been dented by the fall in natural gas prices this year
A large number of deals were transacted in 2022 as gas prices reached multi-year highs
Energy consulting firm Enverus said that this year may be more challenging for gas deals, although there are still buyers, "particularly the bigger companies taking a multi-decade strategy."

Mountain Valley pipeline not included in new energy permitting plan (BBG)
On Thursday, Republican lawmakers will advance a plan for reforming environmental permits to speed up energy infrastructure projects
It was believed that a permitting overhaul bill would include specific language relating to the construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline; however, that has not been included
Equitrans continues to guide toward the second half of 2023 for MVP to begin operations

Marathon buys stake in renewable natural gas producer (BBG)
Marathon Petroleum has announced that it will acquire a 49.9% interest in LF Bioenergy, which produces natural gas from animal waste
The company plans to have its first facility online this year and to produce 6,500 MMbtu per day by 2027
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34279
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 9

Post by dan_s »

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Apr 23) was down $-0.94 on the day, to settle at $75.72 < $75 to $80 is a classic channel trading range until we move into Q2 and refineries ramp up demand for crude oil. Demand for oil spikes in Q2 each year.
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Apr 23) was down $-0.008 on the day, to settle at $2.543 < My forecasts are based on $2.50 in Q1, $2.75 in Q2, $3.25 in Q3, and $3.50 in Q4.

Look at any of the gassers (AR, CRK, EQT and RRC) and you will see that they are profitable in Q1 with HH ngas averaging $2.50.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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