Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 10

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dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 10

Post by dan_s »

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $0.36 to $76.08/bbl, and Brent is up $0.39 to $81.98/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -2.9c to $2.514/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes with my comments in blue
Oil

Oil heads for a weekly loss as concerns of Fed tightening policy persist < FEAR is tough to get past, despite good economic news.
April ’23 WTI gained 36c this morning to trade around $76/Bbl

Crude is down 4.5%, or $3.60, this week as concerns of steep interest rate hikes outweigh optimism about China’s recovery
Fed Chair Powell said this week that the central bank might hike rates faster than expected, but a decision hadn’t yet been taken for the March meeting
The U.S. February non-farm payroll data on Friday showed that the unemployment rate and payroll growth exceeded expectations < We are in "Upside/Down World" where good economic news (normally bullish for oil demand) is seen as bad news by the Wall Street Gang.
Also weighing on prices this week was a strong U.S. dollar that surged to a three-month high before weakening on Friday

OPEC+ oil production fell by 80,000 Bbl/d In February despite an uptick in Russia (SPGlobal)
Overall production fell due to declines in Angola, Iraq, and Kazakhstan, even though Russian oil production, which is still resilient, grew marginally
The Platts survey showed that Russian oil production rose by 10,000 Bbl/d to 9.86 MMBbl/d in February
But, Russia has stated that it will lower its oil production by 500,000 MMBbl/d in March in retaliation to Western sanctions, which could have an impact on the volume of its oil and gasoline exports
Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to continue close coordination in the group's oil policy during a visit by Saudi Arabia's foreign minister to Moscow on Thursday
MY TAKE: During Q1 when oil demand is at the low point for the year, the global oil market is in balance. In two months demand will exceed supply and the refiners will be bidding up the NYMEX futures contracts.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices set for weekly loss, trading around $2.51
Yesterday the EIA reported a storage withdrawal of -84 Bcf, which brings the storage surplus to 359 Bcf above the five-year average < The next three weekly reports should show draws from storage above the 5-year average.

Texas lawmakers propose new oversight for the gas market (BBG)
Representative John Bryant is proposing a bill that would create an independent monitor of the gas market in Texas and a separate bill that would establish a gas desk at ERCOT
The proposed bills are in response to the 2021 winter storm that caused significant power outages in Texas
Proponents of the bill say it will increase transparency and help prevent any potential market manipulation

Renewable natural gas landgrab is mostly over (Reuters) < Am I the only person that finds it funny that they think by labeling this gas as "renewable" that they can sell it to the Climate Change Wackos?
Many of the best sites for producing renewable natural gas from landfills or dairy farms have been acquired, according to executives at this week's CERA conference
"If you look back at the last five years in shale, with the race to secure the best acreage, and what people were willing to pay to do that, you've seen a lot of the same in RNG," said a Vice President from Williams Companies
About 180-200 MMCf/d of renewable natural gas is produced in the US, with the maximum potential supply estimated at 5-10 Bcf/d < This looks extremely optimistic to me.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Cliff_N
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Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 10

Post by Cliff_N »

The lowest common denominator has figured out that Oil and Gas are necessary. The same woman that could not answer the question on how many barrels of oil are consumed each day and laughed when it was suggested, "Should we be drilling for more oil?"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bidens-energy-secretary-pumps-the-brakes-on-rapid-green-energy-transition-we-need-both/ar-AA18pMaH

"Now, look. We know that oil and gas will remain part of our energy mix for years to come," Granholm remarked during her keynote address. "And we know that even the boldest projections for clean energy deployment suggest that, in the middle of this century, we’ll be using abated fossil fuels."

This cabinet member is emblematic of this administration, selected based on identity politics rather than competence. The most hapless cabinet ever assembled.
dan_s
Posts: 34807
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 10

Post by dan_s »

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Apr 23) was up $0.96 on the day, to settle at $76.68ng Prices > Good day but a bad week. Oil likely stays in the $75 -$80 channel until we get refiners finish their maintenance and move back up to 95% capacity.
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Apr 23) was down $-0.113 on the day, to settle at $2.430
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34807
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 10

Post by dan_s »

Bloomberg
"- Chinese refiners are tapping US and Canadian
crude to help meet demand for the summer, raising hopes that the
world’s largest oil importer is gearing up for even more.
At least 6 million barrels of mostly sour grades produced
by the US and Canada were sold to China in the past week,
according to people with knowledge of the situation.
China’s buying over the past two months has been a key
bullish force in a market grappling with tighter monetary policy
from central banks. Economic activity has been rising since
China lifted Covid restrictions, giving hopes to North American
producers hunting for outlets for increasing oil production.
A Chinese refiner bought 2 million barrels of Mars Blend
and 1.8 million barrels of Cold Lake, while Unipec, the trading
arm of China’s biggest refiner Sinopec, bought 2 million barrels
of US crude, including Mars, for arrival in June.
Resurgent Chinese demand is also a boon for shipowners,
with rising volumes sending freight costs to Asia from the US,
West Africa and Middle East to the highest this year."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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