Sweet 16 Update - Mar 11
Posted: Sat Mar 11, 2023 4:19 pm
A very rough week for the overall market, capped by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), a bank that I never heard of.
For the week ending March 10, our Sweet 16 lost 12.52% going from up 3.89% to down 8.63% in one week. All 16 companies were very profitable in 2022 and are on-track to be profitable again in 2023, unless there is a big drop in oil prices.
The S&P 500 Index lost 4.79% during the week and is now up just 0.58% YTD.
Permian Resources (PR) up 14.26% and Range Resources (RRC) up 2.64% are the only two up YTD. PR looks VERY GOOD and now is a great time to add it to your portfolio. Since RRC is a "gasser", I am surprised that its doing this well. It is a rock solid company and all four of our gassers (AR, CRK, EQT and RRC) are going to be able to survive a period of lower than justified natural gas prices. The weather pattern had turned bullish for natural gas demand and we should see several draws from storage in a row that should be larger than the 5-year average.
During the week I updated my valuations of EQT, MGY, MTDR, PR, SBOW and SM
We have published updated profiles on AR, CPE, CRK, EQT, MGY, MTDR, PR, RRC, SBOW and SM
Ranger Oil (ROCC) will be merging into Baytex (BTE). The Baytex Proforma forecast looks good, but I won't have time to take a hard look at it this month. I am considering moving EOG Resources (EOG), one of the all-time great growth companies, back into the Sweet 16.
Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) and Surge Energy (SGY.TO and ZPTAF) from our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio also have a shot at a promotion. They are both going to report strong production growth in 2023. The CEO of Surge Energy will be speaking at our next Houston luncheon in mid-April. < We may be moving it from April 11 to April 12.
Except for Ranger Oil, all of the other 15 companies have announced Q4 2022 results (all good) and they have provided detailed guidance for 2023. I have updated my forecast/valuation models for all 15 of them. You can find them on the EPG website under the Sweet 16 tab.
Our updated profile on Crescent Point Energy (CPG) will be published on Monday morning.
Hang Tough, if we can get past the "Fear of the Fed" we will be fine.
For the week ending March 10, our Sweet 16 lost 12.52% going from up 3.89% to down 8.63% in one week. All 16 companies were very profitable in 2022 and are on-track to be profitable again in 2023, unless there is a big drop in oil prices.
The S&P 500 Index lost 4.79% during the week and is now up just 0.58% YTD.
Permian Resources (PR) up 14.26% and Range Resources (RRC) up 2.64% are the only two up YTD. PR looks VERY GOOD and now is a great time to add it to your portfolio. Since RRC is a "gasser", I am surprised that its doing this well. It is a rock solid company and all four of our gassers (AR, CRK, EQT and RRC) are going to be able to survive a period of lower than justified natural gas prices. The weather pattern had turned bullish for natural gas demand and we should see several draws from storage in a row that should be larger than the 5-year average.
During the week I updated my valuations of EQT, MGY, MTDR, PR, SBOW and SM
We have published updated profiles on AR, CPE, CRK, EQT, MGY, MTDR, PR, RRC, SBOW and SM
Ranger Oil (ROCC) will be merging into Baytex (BTE). The Baytex Proforma forecast looks good, but I won't have time to take a hard look at it this month. I am considering moving EOG Resources (EOG), one of the all-time great growth companies, back into the Sweet 16.
Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) and Surge Energy (SGY.TO and ZPTAF) from our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio also have a shot at a promotion. They are both going to report strong production growth in 2023. The CEO of Surge Energy will be speaking at our next Houston luncheon in mid-April. < We may be moving it from April 11 to April 12.
Except for Ranger Oil, all of the other 15 companies have announced Q4 2022 results (all good) and they have provided detailed guidance for 2023. I have updated my forecast/valuation models for all 15 of them. You can find them on the EPG website under the Sweet 16 tab.
Our updated profile on Crescent Point Energy (CPG) will be published on Monday morning.
Hang Tough, if we can get past the "Fear of the Fed" we will be fine.