Sweet 16 Update - Mar 11

Post Reply
dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Sweet 16 Update - Mar 11

Post by dan_s »

A very rough week for the overall market, capped by the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB), a bank that I never heard of.

For the week ending March 10, our Sweet 16 lost 12.52% going from up 3.89% to down 8.63% in one week. All 16 companies were very profitable in 2022 and are on-track to be profitable again in 2023, unless there is a big drop in oil prices.
The S&P 500 Index lost 4.79% during the week and is now up just 0.58% YTD.

Permian Resources (PR) up 14.26% and Range Resources (RRC) up 2.64% are the only two up YTD. PR looks VERY GOOD and now is a great time to add it to your portfolio. Since RRC is a "gasser", I am surprised that its doing this well. It is a rock solid company and all four of our gassers (AR, CRK, EQT and RRC) are going to be able to survive a period of lower than justified natural gas prices. The weather pattern had turned bullish for natural gas demand and we should see several draws from storage in a row that should be larger than the 5-year average.

During the week I updated my valuations of EQT, MGY, MTDR, PR, SBOW and SM

We have published updated profiles on AR, CPE, CRK, EQT, MGY, MTDR, PR, RRC, SBOW and SM

Ranger Oil (ROCC) will be merging into Baytex (BTE). The Baytex Proforma forecast looks good, but I won't have time to take a hard look at it this month. I am considering moving EOG Resources (EOG), one of the all-time great growth companies, back into the Sweet 16.

Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) and Surge Energy (SGY.TO and ZPTAF) from our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio also have a shot at a promotion. They are both going to report strong production growth in 2023. The CEO of Surge Energy will be speaking at our next Houston luncheon in mid-April. < We may be moving it from April 11 to April 12.

Except for Ranger Oil, all of the other 15 companies have announced Q4 2022 results (all good) and they have provided detailed guidance for 2023. I have updated my forecast/valuation models for all 15 of them. You can find them on the EPG website under the Sweet 16 tab.

Our updated profile on Crescent Point Energy (CPG) will be published on Monday morning.

Hang Tough, if we can get past the "Fear of the Fed" we will be fine.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Mar 11

Post by dan_s »

Some REAL WINTER WEATHER is heading to New England and there will be two more winter storms before March is over.
Watch the Saturday Summary here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

La Nina is fading away and El Nino will move into the Pacific soon.

Weather Video: https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2023-03-09-east-coast-storm-new-england-northeast-wind-snow?cm_ven=hp-slot-2
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Fraser921
Posts: 2955
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Mar 11

Post by Fraser921 »

Will we get a weekly video this week?
dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Mar 11

Post by dan_s »

Maybe late today. I have six more profiles updated by the MBA's that I need to review.

Computer problem on Friday destroyed my goal for this weekend to get caught up.

Not much to report, oil stuck in a trading channel of $75 to $80 and natural gas prices need some help from the weather.

Oil and gas prices used in my forecast/valuation models has not changed.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
grimaldi
Posts: 80
Joined: Sat Apr 20, 2013 8:27 pm

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Mar 11

Post by grimaldi »

Yes, well, now it's Wednesday and the whole market is dropping like a stone. Seems like a good day to buy. Any suggestions?
dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Mar 11

Post by dan_s »

The large-caps in our High Yield Income Portfolio are the safe bets since they have super strong balance sheets and they pay very nice dividends.

CTRA < a gasser
DVN
FANG
EOG
PDCE
PXD

Midstream companies like AM, OKE and PAGP are also solid.

My favorite minerals companies are STR, VNOM, BSM and KRP. BSM is an MLP
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Post Reply