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Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Update - Mar 16

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:52 am
by dan_s
Kolibri’s President and Chief Executive Officer, Wolf Regener commented:

“We are extremely pleased with the transformation of the Company that occurred in 2022. We were able to increase our Adjusted EBITDA by 288% by successfully drilling five wells in our corridor area and demonstrating the impressive and consistent performance of our field. We developed a strategy for the year and successfully executed it, which enabled the Company to either meet or exceed the forecasted guidance that we provided earlier in the year. Management is excited to continue to build on our 2022 performance with our 2023 drilling program. We started drilling the first three wells in our 2023 drilling program this week and we have also signed a new rig contract to drill three additional wells starting in July 2023.

“Looking ahead, we are currently forecasting the 2023 drilling program to deliver as follows:

Capital expenditures of $44 million to $51 million to drill between six and seven wells throughout the year with timing to be determined based on available cash flow. We plan to fund our 2023 drilling program with our existing cash flow, with the potential of temporarily drawing down a portion of our outstanding credit facility to manage working capital;

Annual average production of between 3,600 to 4,000 BOEPD with a year-end exit rate of between 4,500 to 5,000 BOEPD, based on the assumption that the new production performs per a type curve which is similar to NSAI’s December 2022 proved type curve; < Conservative production forecast. The first three wells should push production up to over 5,000 Boepd.

Generate between $65 million to $70 million in net revenue and $52 million to $55 million of adjusted EBITDA; and

Net debt at year-end between $16.0 million to $18.0 million while maintaining a total debt to EBITDA ratio of less than 1.0 throughout the year
Management plans to reevaluate the 2023 drilling program later in the year and may modify it once we have more visibility on prices and well performance. Any modifications to the drilling program may affect the above forecast.

Assumptions include forecasted pricing of WTI US $75/bbl, $5 Henry Hub and NGL pricing of $30 bbl and includes the impact of the Company’s existing hedges.
I will update my forecast/valuation model for Kolibri this afternoon after I attend their webcast today at 2PM ET

Re: Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Update - Mar 16

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2023 9:26 am
by ChuckGeb
Q$ quite a bit lower than your forecast. Are you considering this a miss? Also 2023 guidance much lower than your forecast.

Do you know what the metrics are for reserve reporting under Canadian regulations? Prices used, well spacing, drilling plans. Value of reserves compared to 2023 guidance looks to be a lot more than 5 years as 2023 pace.

Re: Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Update - Mar 16

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2023 12:10 pm
by dan_s
Wolf is a smart financial guy. He knows that small-caps must "under-promise and over-deliver" to get Wall Street's attention.
I think his 2023 production forecast is VERY CONSERVATIVE.
Attend today webcast.
Key is how well the 2022 wells are holding up.

Q4 results less than expect, but still good. I've not had time to update my forecast model. I will late today.

Re: Kolibri Global Energy youtube

Posted: Sat Mar 18, 2023 10:21 am
by Fraser921