Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Valuation Update - Mar 16

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dan_s
Posts: 34279
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Valuation Update - Mar 16

Post by dan_s »

I have adjusted my forecast/valuation model to agree with Kolibri's guidance for 2023, which looks extremely conservative to me.

KEI.TO closed today at $5.45Cdn. My valuation adjusts to $11.00Cdn, which translates to $8.25US for KGEIF.

This small-cap has a very strong balance sheet, is funding D&C capex entirely with operating cash flow and it has a lot of running room in the SCOOP oil play in Central Oklahoma (60 PUD drilling locations). Their current guidance is based on only drilling seven new horizontal wells this year. One well in the first three will be testing the T-Zone, which is under the Caney formation. If successful, it could significantly increase recoverable reserves and my stock valuation.

Per the Netherland Swell year-end reserve report, based on Canada's commodity price rules.
> P1 PV10 Net Asset Value is $19.53Cdn / $14.45US per share
> P2 PV10 Net Asset Value is $27.49Cdn / $20.34US per share

My updated forecast model has been posted to the EPG website. We will publish an update profile on Kolibri early in April.

The CEO will be coming to Houston to host a luncheon for us on May 16.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
ChuckGeb
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Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Valuation Update - Mar 16

Post by ChuckGeb »

Good guys with some nice acreage. Looks like they are drilling in a sweet spot for CLR as well. Glad they are hosting luncheon. Great to get in early on this one.
ChuckGeb
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Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Valuation Update - Mar 16

Post by ChuckGeb »

Do you think they will be in a position to report results on their three well pad just undertake by the EPG luncheon? I assume it will depend on how quickly they can get completion crew mobilized.
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Valuation Update - Mar 16

Post by dan_s »

They are drilling all three horizontal wells first and then bring in a completion crew to complete all three at the same time. Doing it this way lowers the overall cost. They should have the wells all drilled and cased by mid-April, so it just depends how fast they can get the completion crew in. I don't think they use massive frac jobs, so they might have them completed by mid-May.

The T-Zone test well could significantly increase my valuation.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
ChuckGeb
Posts: 907
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Kolibri Global Energy (KEI & KGEIF in US) Valuation Update - Mar 16

Post by ChuckGeb »

Kolibri on sale today! Also a few others but this is a new player in great position. Won’t have a 3 handle for very long.
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