Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 27
Posted: Mon Mar 27, 2023 9:58 am
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $1.42 to $70.68/bbl, and Brent is up $1.40 to $76.39/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -10.2c to $2.114/MMBtu. (As of 07:46 AM CDT )
AEGIS Notes with my comments in blue
Oil
Oil extends weekly gains amid Kurdistan oil export halts
May ’23 WTI gains $1.42 this morning to trade around $70.68/Bbl
Equities and futures rose slightly after news of First Citizens Bank acquiring part of SVB's assets, slightly easing concerns about the banking sector
Kurdistan’s 0.4 MMBbl/d oil exports remain shut-In as talks with Iraq fail
Exports were suspended after Iraq won a long-running case against Turkey, which required Turkey to now pay $1.5 billion to Iraq
NATO authorities criticized Russia's decision to announce the placement of nuclear weapons in Belarus on Saturday
Iraqi officials fail to agree on restarting oil exports from Turkey (BBG)
Kurdistan's crude exports (nearly 0.4 MMBbl/d) from Ceyhan port remain halted for a fourth day as talks between the northern Iraqi region and Baghdad failed to resolve the issue
Iraqi and Kurdish officials met on Sunday in Baghdad and didn’t achieve a breakthrough on restarting flows, according to two people familiar with the matter
In a long-running dispute that began in 2014, the International Chamber of Commerce ruled in favor of Iraq
At the time, Iraq claimed that Turkey had broken a joint agreement by permitting the Kurdistan Regional Government to export oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan
Putin announces Russia will station nuclear weapons in Belarus (Reuters)
In reaction to NATO's military backing of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Saturday that he will station nuclear weapons in Belarus
Putin said that the placement of the weapons would not go against the nuclear non-proliferation treaties
NATO criticized Russia for deploying the weapons on Sunday, with spokesperson Oana Lungescu saying that " Russia has consistently broken its arms control commitments"
IMO there is not enough of a geopolitical premium in the price of oil.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices fall nearly 5.5% to $2.11, the lowest level since February
The Summer ’23 strip is down 7c to $2.57, and the Winter ‘23/’24 strip is lower by 6c to $3.63
Weather forecasts have moderated over the weekend, with the Lower 48 forecast warming by 23 °F in the 1-15 day period
The Northeast regions forecast warmed by 37.5 °F, and the South Central by 44.1 °F
Gas inventories near the end of winter with a large surplus (Reuters)
Despite some short-lived winter storms, this winter was materially warmer than average, with the December-February period being the seventh warmest on record
Lower 48 gas inventories have gone from a deficit of 427 Bcf on September 9 to a surplus of 242 Bcf on March 17
The surplus of gas supply has pressured prices lower, with prices falling from $9.92/MMBtu on August 22 to their current level of around $2.00/MMBtu
European gas and power prices rise due to French strikes (BBG)
The ongoing strikes have impacted LNG import terminals and power plants at a time when Europe is experiencing cooler-than-normal weather
Nuclear reactor availability has fallen 57% since the strikes began, boosting electricity prices
European LNG buyers are also monitoring the progress of the Freeport LNG restart, as the facility has resumed operations but canceled a cargo loading last week due to a technical issue
> WTI is up $1.42 to $70.68/bbl, and Brent is up $1.40 to $76.39/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -10.2c to $2.114/MMBtu. (As of 07:46 AM CDT )
AEGIS Notes with my comments in blue
Oil
Oil extends weekly gains amid Kurdistan oil export halts
May ’23 WTI gains $1.42 this morning to trade around $70.68/Bbl
Equities and futures rose slightly after news of First Citizens Bank acquiring part of SVB's assets, slightly easing concerns about the banking sector
Kurdistan’s 0.4 MMBbl/d oil exports remain shut-In as talks with Iraq fail
Exports were suspended after Iraq won a long-running case against Turkey, which required Turkey to now pay $1.5 billion to Iraq
NATO authorities criticized Russia's decision to announce the placement of nuclear weapons in Belarus on Saturday
Iraqi officials fail to agree on restarting oil exports from Turkey (BBG)
Kurdistan's crude exports (nearly 0.4 MMBbl/d) from Ceyhan port remain halted for a fourth day as talks between the northern Iraqi region and Baghdad failed to resolve the issue
Iraqi and Kurdish officials met on Sunday in Baghdad and didn’t achieve a breakthrough on restarting flows, according to two people familiar with the matter
In a long-running dispute that began in 2014, the International Chamber of Commerce ruled in favor of Iraq
At the time, Iraq claimed that Turkey had broken a joint agreement by permitting the Kurdistan Regional Government to export oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan
Putin announces Russia will station nuclear weapons in Belarus (Reuters)
In reaction to NATO's military backing of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Saturday that he will station nuclear weapons in Belarus
Putin said that the placement of the weapons would not go against the nuclear non-proliferation treaties
NATO criticized Russia for deploying the weapons on Sunday, with spokesperson Oana Lungescu saying that " Russia has consistently broken its arms control commitments"
IMO there is not enough of a geopolitical premium in the price of oil.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices fall nearly 5.5% to $2.11, the lowest level since February
The Summer ’23 strip is down 7c to $2.57, and the Winter ‘23/’24 strip is lower by 6c to $3.63
Weather forecasts have moderated over the weekend, with the Lower 48 forecast warming by 23 °F in the 1-15 day period
The Northeast regions forecast warmed by 37.5 °F, and the South Central by 44.1 °F
Gas inventories near the end of winter with a large surplus (Reuters)
Despite some short-lived winter storms, this winter was materially warmer than average, with the December-February period being the seventh warmest on record
Lower 48 gas inventories have gone from a deficit of 427 Bcf on September 9 to a surplus of 242 Bcf on March 17
The surplus of gas supply has pressured prices lower, with prices falling from $9.92/MMBtu on August 22 to their current level of around $2.00/MMBtu
European gas and power prices rise due to French strikes (BBG)
The ongoing strikes have impacted LNG import terminals and power plants at a time when Europe is experiencing cooler-than-normal weather
Nuclear reactor availability has fallen 57% since the strikes began, boosting electricity prices
European LNG buyers are also monitoring the progress of the Freeport LNG restart, as the facility has resumed operations but canceled a cargo loading last week due to a technical issue