Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 30

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dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 30

Post by dan_s »

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $0.69 to $73.66/bbl, and Brent is up $0.59 to $78.87/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -5.4c to $2.13/MMBtu. (As of 07:45 AM CDT)

AEGIS Notes with my comments in blue
Oil

Oil trades higher amid the weakening U.S. Dollar and Kurdish supply risks
May ’23 WTI gained 69c this morning to trade around $73.66/Bbl

Exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq remain halted and are unlikely to resume this week (BBG)
Companies operating oilfields in Kurdistan have reduced or shut in output due to a halt in the northern export pipeline, with further outages expected

A strong rally in equities continues to subside worries regarding banking failures, as the FDIC may ask larger banks to cover $23 billion in costs from bank failures

The U.S. Dollar continues to weaken relative to its recent highs, making oil more affordable for holders of other currencies

French government releases 10 MMBbl of fuel from strategic reserves as ongoing strikes continue to affect refinery and port operation (BBG)
Additionally, OPEC+ will reportedly uphold current oil output cuts at their upcoming meeting as oil recovers from a 15-month low, according to the bloc’s delegates (Reuters) < I hope all of you watched the replay of Tuesday's US Energy Development Corp. webinar, which I was on. About midway during the presentation, Matt Iak and I discuss how difficult it is going to be for global oil supply to keep up with demand. Even if the OPEC cartel lifts all production cuts, we don't see adequate supply within six months to meet demand. If this becomes reality, OECD petroleum inventories will plunge to levels never seen before. They are already approaching 27 Days of Consumption, which is below the "normal level" of 30 Days of Consumption.

Western insurance continues to complicate Russia's oil export shift to Asia (BBG)
The insurance of over 50% of Russia's crude shipments by Western countries is hindering its efforts to increase oil exports to China and India
The $60/Bbl price cap set by the EU and the U.S., which is enforced by Western insurance, is concerning Russian oil industry officials as further reductions in price caps may result in significant revenue losses

The world's most important oil price benchmark, Dated Brent, is being overhauled as it runs out of tradable oil (BBG)
The shift will allow oil from West Texas (WTI Midland) to determine the price of millions of barrels of petroleum transactions
Platts will evaluate current Dated grades and use a freight adjustment factor to determine the market price, with crude cargoes from the U.S. allowed for inclusion from early May.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices are down 2.5% to $2.13, with May now the prompt month contract
Weather forecasts shifted warmer, with the Lower 48 two-week forecast warming by 6 °F

The EIA will release its weekly natural gas storage report today
The median estimate is for a -54 Bcf withdrawal, while the Bloomberg survey ranges from a low of -61 to a high of -44
The five-year average withdrawal for the corresponding week is -17 Bcf
My WAG is that the next three weeks' of draws will significantly reduce the surplus to the 5-year average.

Mountain Valley Pipeline overcomes legal battle (BBG)
A lawsuit alleging that federal agencies failed to consider alternative sites for MVP’s water crossings has been rejected by the US Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit
A second lawsuit over permits is pending with the US Court of Appeals relating to permits issued by the state of West Virginia
If the courts rule in favor of MVP in the second lawsuit, FERC reissues its biological opinion, and the Forest Service reissues its biological opinion, MVP will have all necessary permits to proceed with construction < That is a lot of "ifs".

New LNG facilities face increasing financial hurdles (Reuters)
NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG and Energy Transfers Lake Charles LNG, which were aiming for a Final Investment Decision this quarter, have been pushed back
Analytics firm Kpler said that the banking crisis may have fostered concerns that bank lending activity might be pulled back
Two facilities that have received financial approval this quarter are Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG and Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Mar 30

Post by dan_s »

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (May 23) was up $1.40 on the day, to settle at $74.37 < If WTI can close over $74 on Friday, it should re-establish the $74 to $81 channel that WTI had been trading in for almost three months.
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (May 23) was down $-0.080 on the day, to settle at $2.104 < The banks and hedge funds still have a lot of long positions that they need to close.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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