Energy Prospectus

When will NG break 2.00?

A. this week.
B Next week

https://twitter.com/CelsiusEnergyFM/status/1643245237177835521

If you believe natural gas is going to stay around $2.00 you should sell all of your gassers.

If you think this is a short term price, then take a look at BSM in our High Yield Income Portfolio. You get 12% dividend yield while you wait for natural gas prices to go up. If the NYMEX strip prices for gas hold, BSM probably has 25% upside by Christmas.

Good advice! Thank you!

I'm po'd we have to buy NG from anywhere but Pa and get it shipped into New England. I'm ready for Ai to take over for humans

The big question mark on BSM is whether the operators under their Haynesville minerals continue to drill. they have incentive development drilling deals with Aetheon and another operator to drill a minimum number of wells per year in agreement for some concessions on royalties. Last conference call BSM stated that they expected these companies to continue with their agreement. Gas prices have deteriorated since that call and as has become apparent it seems prudent for Hayneville operators to throttle back on completions, drilling, production in the Haynesville in the interest of getting gas prices back to a price supportive of operations. We likely won't know until the next conference call if these agreements have since been modified or otherwise changed. In that Haynesville wells have substantial early steep declines unless drilling/completion is maintained royalties will drop significantly despite BSM being hedged against the downside. Thus I have my doubts about the stated 12% yield at current pricing. We will soon see.

If I was advising a Haynesville company, I would recommend not completing wells until the gas price gets back to more than $3.00. As you posted, Haynesville wells come on very strong, so why sell that flush production at $2.00 when you can keep it in the ground and sell it a few months later for $3.00.
Again, we have a "glut" of long futures contracts. We do not have a "glut" of gas in the physical market.

My hunch is this is a well on BSM acreage.

Aethon's Screamer Well Joins Comstock's Deep-Bossier Wildcatting
Aethon Energy's 36.9 MMcf/d Currie #2H north of Houston makes for a third well revealed in Bossier prospect north of Houston that one longtime Texas wildcatter calls a "big boy play."

I would not want to be standing very close to that wellhead. I was near a well in Oklahoma that came on at ~5 mmcfpd and the flare sounded like a jet engine.