Sweet 16 Update: March 31
Posted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 5:08 pm
I spent three hours on a Saturday going over all my Sweet 16 Forecast models and updating a few that needed it. [This is why you guys pay me the Big Bucks. Ha!] EPG Members can log on and down load a spreadsheet that shows my Fair Value estimate and First Call's price target for each stock.
Since it is the end of a quarter, I like to take a hard look at where the portfolio stands.
The Sweet 16 is up 11.5% year-to-date. That's not bad but I think it is still trading well below Fair Value. In fact it is 42% below my estimated Fair Value. IMO, several of our companies are prime takeover targets.
All of our Canadian based companies (GTE, TGA, PetroBank and Petrominerales) appear to be trading at deep discounts to their break-up values. They are all heavily weighted to oil. TGA and PetroBank are both up more than 50% year-to-date and still well below my estimated Fair Value.
EOG and WLL have dipped below the price on Februay 18, when I added them to the Sweet 16. Both are going to report very strong 1st quarter results.
I am expecting a very strong 4th quarter from Mitcham Industries (MIND) for their fiscal year ending January 31st. I am also expecting very strong 1st quarters from all the companies. First Call's price target for MIND is $29.67 and I bet that it will go up after they see Q4 results.
Our Bakken and Eagle Ford companies should report a lot of progress. If you have not taken a hard look at Whiting Petroleum (WLL), you should. It is a first class team and they have some outstanding Bakken acreage.
Realized oil prices should be about $7/bbl higher than they were in Q4 and even higher for the companies like DNR and GPOR that sell a lot of production into the Gulf Coast market.
Since it is the end of a quarter, I like to take a hard look at where the portfolio stands.
The Sweet 16 is up 11.5% year-to-date. That's not bad but I think it is still trading well below Fair Value. In fact it is 42% below my estimated Fair Value. IMO, several of our companies are prime takeover targets.
All of our Canadian based companies (GTE, TGA, PetroBank and Petrominerales) appear to be trading at deep discounts to their break-up values. They are all heavily weighted to oil. TGA and PetroBank are both up more than 50% year-to-date and still well below my estimated Fair Value.
EOG and WLL have dipped below the price on Februay 18, when I added them to the Sweet 16. Both are going to report very strong 1st quarter results.
I am expecting a very strong 4th quarter from Mitcham Industries (MIND) for their fiscal year ending January 31st. I am also expecting very strong 1st quarters from all the companies. First Call's price target for MIND is $29.67 and I bet that it will go up after they see Q4 results.
Our Bakken and Eagle Ford companies should report a lot of progress. If you have not taken a hard look at Whiting Petroleum (WLL), you should. It is a first class team and they have some outstanding Bakken acreage.
Realized oil prices should be about $7/bbl higher than they were in Q4 and even higher for the companies like DNR and GPOR that sell a lot of production into the Gulf Coast market.