Oil & Gas Prices - April 10

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil & Gas Prices - April 10

Post by dan_s »

Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $0.57 to $80.13/bbl, and Brent is down $0.59 to $84.53/bbl.
> Natural gas is up 5.6c to $2.067/MMBtu. (As of 07:47 AM CDT)

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Oil trades lower after posting a third consecutive weekly gain
May ’23 WTI lost 57c this morning to trade around $80.13/Bbl < moving higher in early trading

Crude futures posted a $5, or 6.6% gain last week following OPEC+'s surprise 1.66 MMBbl/d production cut
Additionally, the Russian Energy Ministry announced a reduction in oil output by 0.7 MMBbl/d in March, following plans to continue production cuts of 0.5 MMBbl/d this year

Friday's US jobs report slightly exceeded expectations, potentially renewing expectations of further rate hikes
The U.S. Dollar strengthened relative to its recent lows, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies

Turkey plans to negotiate with Iraq before reopening 0.4 MMBbl/d Kurdish oil pipelines

The market awaits the March CPI report this week in addition to OPEC and IEA’s monthly reports

Russia says it reduced oil output by 0.7 MMBbl/d in March (BBG)
The Russian Energy Ministry reported a reduction in oil output by 0.7 MMBbl/d in March
The reduction is 40% higher than the pledged 0.5 MMBbl/d cut between March and December
However, the figures are inconsistent with data in March seaborne exports and supplies to domestic refineries, adding uncertainty over the actual oil output

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices start the week higher, trading around $2.07
Weather forecast changes were mixed with the Lower 48 forecast, warming by 6.4 °F in the 1-5 day period and cooling by 7.1 °F in the 6-10 day period

Texas state Senate approves bill to support additional gas-fired power generation (BBG)
The bill will incentivize the construction of up to 10 GW of backup power generation and create an energy insurance fund to assure builders of the facilities would receive returns of up to 10%
This bill comes amid a push by Texas Republicans to reform the states power market and shore up grid reliability following the 2021 winter storm, which caused power loss across the state

Global gas consumption to rise 1% in 2023, says GECF (S&P)
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum said in their 2023 annual report that they expect demand for natural gas to grow in 2023 after falling 0.4% in 2022
Much of the increase in demand is expected to come from the industrial sector, which saw a decline of 4% in 2022 due to high prices
Global imports of LNG are expected to increase 4-4.5%, with China and Southeast Asia accounting for most of the incremental increase
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - April 10

Post by dan_s »

Fear of Recession remains a dark cloud over oil price.

Trading Economics
"WTI crude futures were trading below the $80 per barrel mark as renewed concerns of a demand-sapping global recession offset bullish bets around tighter global supplies. The latest jobs report from the US Labor Department showed a still-tight labor market, underpinning convictions that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening may not be over yet while clouding the growth outlook and, consequently, demand for crude. On the supply side, OPEC+ announced last week that it will reduce output by 1.16 million barrels per day from May until the end of 2023, offering significant support to prices. After the announcement, Saudi Arabia raised its May crude prices to term customers in Asia and the US. Meanwhile, OPEC and the IEA are due to report a monthly outlook this week, providing further details on the supply and demand prospects."

This week's IEA will draw a lot of attention to how tight the oil market is going to be in a few months.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - April 10

Post by dan_s »

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (May 23) was down $-0.96 on the day, to settle at $79.74
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (May 23) was up $0.161 on the day, to settle at $2.172
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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