Notes from Neal Dingmann at Truist Financial - April 11

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dan_s
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Notes from Neal Dingmann at Truist Financial - April 11

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Exploration & Production: 1Q23 Preview with Most E&Ps Still Well Positioned; Upgrading MUR & Downgrading EQT
- The upstream group has surprisingly begun the year
lagging the broader indices largely due to inflationary concerns
impacting oil demand and materially lower natural gas prices.
We forecast our group to significantly outperform the broader
indices in 2H23-2024 much as the E&Ps did for 2021 & 2022. Our
upside confidence is based on numerous company conversations
suggesting continued capital discipline and strong shareholder
returns. We favor E&Ps with the highest FCF yield and lowest
multiples such as MRO, MUR, NOG, OVV, and PR among others,
driving our MUR upgrade (note) and EQT downgrade (note). -

EQT Corporation (EQT, $33.39, Hold) - Lower Gas Deck
Drives Decreased Price Target to $28 and New Lower Hold Rating -
We believe EQT will continue to adjust to the continued volatile
gas tape through minimal D&C along with an active choke
program potentially causing volumes to come in slightly lower
than current consensus. Further we believe most street pricing
forecasts will soon decrease at least to our new lower assumed
expectations with the lower activity and pricing causing our
2023/2024 estimates to fall. Our decreased forecasts combined
with a stock price that has held up better than any other natural
gas name YTD results in our lower Hold rating. - Neal Dingmann

EQT is the nation's largest natural gas producer. Its hedging program should take away a lot of the pain of lower natural gas prices.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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