https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/04/us-recession-probability-reaches-67.html#.ZE_fy3bMK71
George Box, statistician once remarked: "All models are wrong, some are useful."
This article discusses a model that is now showing that we have a probability of 67% of having a recession in 2023-2024:
"The chart shows the current probability of a recession being officially determined to have begun between 27 April 2023 and 27 April 2024 is 67.0%. Assuming the Fed follows through on hiking the Federal Funds Rate by another 0.25% next week, the probability of an "official" recession will continue rising. Doing some back-of-the-envelope math using our recession odds reckoning tool, with the 10-Year and 3-Month Treasuries as inverted as they are today, the odds of recession will breach the 70% threshold in about two weeks. Even if the Federal Reserve stops hiking the Federal Funds Rate after its Federal Open Market Committee meets to set its rate next week, the odds of recession will breach the 80% threshold in early July 2023."