Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 2,141 Bcf as of Friday, May 5, 2023, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 78 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 509 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 332 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,809 Bcf.
At 2,141 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Second storage report in a row showing a weekly build lower than the five-year average. At least it is a start.

Low natural gas prices are increasing natural gas demand for power generation, displacing coal.

Upstream companies are reducing the number of rigs drilling for natural gas and several of the companies that I follow have moved rigs from gas prone areas to oil prone areas. Market forces will rebalance the U.S. natural gas market, which is why the DEC23 NYMEX contract for HH gas was trading at $3.498 at the time of this post.

NG glut in europe

Europe’s gas prices slide on swollen inventories: Kemp - Reuters News

11-May-2023 15:44:09

LONDON, May 11 (Reuters) - Europe has made a relatively slow start to rebuilding gas inventories but stocks were so high at the end of last winter that storage sites are still on course to be full well before summer ends, putting downward pressure on prices.

Natural Gas Markets remain in a long term deficit.

On a short term basis, the market has loosened due to curtailed LNG export capacity following the Freeport fire in the US, and much milder than typical winter weather in Europe. Both of these factors were one-time and are unlikely to repeat going forward.

Europe also took drastic steps increasing LNG imports, curtailing industrial production, and switching to coal and biomass.

However, how is Europe going to permanently replace 18 bcf/d of Russian imports, equating to one-third of total demand? Given their climate goals, it seems unlikely Europe will accept burning record levels of coal on an ongoing basis.