I have FINALLY completed the Cresent Point profile and forecast model update, reducing Q2 production for the estimated impact of the Canadian wildfires on the Company's production. The well shut-ins were done for employee safety due to heavy smoke. They have not reported any damage to wells or surface facilities.
My valuation drops $0.25 to $13.00US per share. At the time of this post CPG was trading at $6.70US, which is less than 2.3 X my updated operating cash flow per share forecast.
CPG is free cash flow positive ($1.72FCF per share), pays a quarterly dividend + a special dividend at year-end, has a stock repurchase program underway and they are on-track to more than 20% year-over-year production growth in 2023. Heading for over 175,000 Boepd of production in Q4 2023, with revenues heavily weighted to oil sales.
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