Paul Sankey on oil forecast

[Fraser921]

.."short term bearish, long term bullish which I openly hate, having for years mocked the standard Wall St analyst line “I’m incredibly bullish long term but expecting a pullback” that can be repeated for years while neither being wrong nor helping clients.

But of course, we are looking for everybody to get bearish oil, and while the bulls have capitulated, they have used an even worse Wall St research line [*][*][*]“Cutting price target but re-iterating BUY” on oil, that is a sure sign of the bad call: thesis drift. [/b]

[dan_s]

I get a lot of Wall Street Gang reports on individual companies. It is clear that most energy sector analysts expect oil & gas prices to move higher and they believe the stock prices of the majority of the companies in our three model portfolios don't reflect their net asset values.

Most of the upstream companies are trading at or below PV10 NAV of just their proved reserves. That should never happen for profitable companies with lots of running room.

[marc.wolin@yahoo.com]

How many years constitute lots of running room?
Marc Wolin

[dan_s]

I consider 5+ years of low-risk development drilling inventory to be a good amount of running room.