Energy Prospectus

OilPrice.com
According to recent data from Rystad Energy, the supply deficit in crude markets could reach 2.4 million bpd over the second half of the year.

Where exactly can oil prices reasonably go in such a context? Up.

And they will go up as soon as traders discover the gap between supply and demand and recall the fact that oil demand is quite inelastic because of the fundamental nature of the commodity. Oil is used in pretty much everything in one form or another. This means that whatever the price, demand will change little.

Read full article here: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Are-Oil-Prices-Set-for-A-Rally.html

Rystad Energy Reasoning for higher OIL Prices in the 2nd half of 2023

https://www.rystadenergy.com/insights/oil-fundamentals-are-about-to-turn-decisively-bullish

From the article at the link above. This is KEY to my forecast that WTI will average $80/bbl in Q3 and $90/bbl in Q4 2023.

"Rystad Energy’s latest liquids supply and demand balance shows the oil market will move to a significant deficit starting this month, averaging a steep 2.4 million barrels-per-day (bpd) deficit for the rest of the year. The last time such a degree of deficit was seen in the market was between the second half of 2020 and the first half of 2021, when oil prices increased from $44 to $69 per barrel. Similarly, between the second quarter of 2017 and the same period of 2018, the market was undersupplied by around 2 million bpd and prices increased from $51 to $75 per barrel."

Rystad is using a conservative demand forecast.
"In our Base Case, we forecast that oil demand will increase by 1.7 million bpd in 2023. This growth rate is relatively conservative when compared to other main forecasters – both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast demand to grow by around 2.4 million bpd, however the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has it at 1.6 million bpd."