Russia's Oil Exports - July 11

[dan_s]

One of the things that I noticed in Marshall Atkins' presentation, which I highlighted in my July 8 podcast, is that he is not including a significant drop in Russian oil exports during 2H 2023. So, if Russia's exports do decline it would increase the gap between oil supply and oil demand. Raymond James, UBS and Rystad are all forecasting that the oil price goes to at least $90/bbl by the end of this year due to more than a 2 million bpd gap between supply and demand, which will result in big declines in OECD petroleum inventories.

From Bloomberg this morning:
Four-week average shipments of crude from
Russia’s ports in the period to July 9 fell to their lowest
since January, giving the first real hint of output cuts that
are now in their fifth month.
* Four-week average shipments dropped by 205k b/d to 3.21m b/d
** More volatile weekly shipments fell by 1.04m b/d to 2.86m b/d
* Bloomberg uses the vessel tracking capabilities offered by the
terminal’s MAP function to monitor seaborne flows of Russian
crude and show how they have evolved since Moscow’s troops
invaded Ukraine, in February 2022
** Results are cross-checked against port agent reports and
other data providers including Kpler and Vortexa
* The attached PDF file details weekly and four-week average
seaborne crude flows by major destinations in four tables and
charts
** The first shows aggregate weekly flows and four-week averages
** The second shows shipments by major destination region
** The third details shipments to Asia
** The fourth shows flows to Europe
* The tables are a companion to a weekly story on Russia
seaborne crude flows published on Tuesdays