EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - July 13

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,930 Bcf as of Friday, July 7, 2023, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 49 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 569 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 364 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,566 Bcf.
At 2,930 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

This is the first build below the five-year average in seven weeks.

Stepping back and looking at the last 13 weeks (a quarter of the year), the total builds have been 73 Bcf higher than the 5-year average. It is a fairly balanced U.S. natural gas market, especially when you consider there is much higher demand for U.S. natural gas than there was five years ago.

Storage levels were ~300 Bcf higher than the 5-year average at the end of Q1 and we have not been able to work off the surplus, but there is currently no "glut". There is plenty of storage room available. I do expect HH ngas to drift up to $3.00 before December.

For now, all of my forecast models are using HH gas prices of $2.50 for Q3 and $2.75 for Q4. For 2024 I am using $3.50 average for the year. 2024 will be an interesting year with weather being the key in the first half of the year and LNG export capacity increasing in the second half.