Energy Prospectus

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending July 14, 2023

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels per day during the week ending July 14, 2023, which was 75 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 94.3% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.5 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.2 million barrels per day last week, increased by 1.3 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.7 million barrels per day, 2.5% more than the same four-week period last year. < Lower imports from Saudi Arabia won't show up until late August.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 717 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 63 thousand barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 457.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are approximately 1% above the five year average for this time of year. < Drawing down the SPR oil reserves and higher net imports are keeping U.S. commercial crude oil inventories near normal. SPR draws should have stopped by now. Imports should decline in late August.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels from last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories slightly increased last week and are about 14% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Propane/propylene inventories increased 0.9 million barrels from last week and are 24% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.3 million barrels a day, up by 1.0% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 4.6% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.4 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 8.3% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 7.2% compared with the same four-week period last year.

The paper traders didn't like it. Crude is down on the day!

https://aegis-hedging.com/insights/weekly-oil-statistics/2023-07-19

API and EIA get their numbers from survey and then estimate. Typically there is a bit of variation between the two estimates. Makes total sense. Cushing is a better a indicator; they actually measure the oil in the tanks:

Crude -708k (-1.8mm exp)
Cushing -2.891mm - biggest draw since Oct 2021.
Gasoline -1.066mm (-1.1mm exp)
Distillates +13k (+200k exp)

Cliff

Cliff:
Good post.
All of you must remember that EIA's weekly reports are basically a Wild Ass Guess. They don't have measuring devices on each tank and well in America.
IEA has been under-estimating global oil demand for decades.

U.S. crude oil inventories were basically flat (based on EIA "WAG") because....
> Net crude oil imports were 3,360,000 bpd
> U.S. crude oil production was flat at 12.3 million bpd < It has been flat for almost a year now.
> Refinery inputs were 16.6 million bpd

Interesting in today's report:
> Crude oil inventories are 27.9 Days of Supply
> Jet Fuel inventories are 23.9 Days of Supply
> Gasoline inventories are 25.1 Days of Supply
"Normal" for the U.S. should be 30 Days of Supply