Energy Prospectus

AR was trading at $26.45 when I posted this.

I have updated my valuation for Q2 results that came in lower than my forecast primarily due to lower NGL prices and their updated guidance. They have raised their production guidance a bit.

My current valuation is reduced by $2.00 to $27.50/share.

The Company has a solid base of production and operating cash flow should rise steadily into yearend. I do expect NGL prices to remain low for at least several more months and I am concerned about the short-term outlook for natural gas prices.

We are out of "Cheap Oil" in the U.S., but we still have lots of "Cheap natural gas" in the U.S.
> Good news is that cheap natural gas should keep our electricity prices reasonable for several more years.
> Lots of associated gas in the shale oil plays.
> We need more access to the international markets for gas. Lot's more LNG export capacity starts coming online mid-2024.

My updated forecast/valuation model for AR has been posted to the EPG website.

The gassers are participating in the upward trend, thanks in part to the higher oil prices.
A more significant and longer lasting multiple expansion is The Big Paradigm Shift that demand for fossil fuels is going to increase for many more years despite the false claims of "Energy Transition".