Energy Prospectus

https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2023

Summary of the IEA's monthly report at the link above.

"World oil demand is scaling record highs, boosted by strong summer air travel, increased oil use in power generation and surging Chinese petrochemical activity. Global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 mb/d to 102.2 mb/d in 2023, with China accounting for more than 70% of growth. With the post-pandemic rebound running out of steam, and as lacklustre economic conditions, tighter efficiency standards and new electric vehicles weigh on use, growth is forecast to slow to 1 mb/d in 2024.

Global oil supply plunged by 910 kb/d to 100.9 mb/d in July. A sharp reduction in Saudi production in July saw output from the OPEC+ bloc fall 1.2 mb/d to 50.7 mb/d, while non-OPEC+ volumes rose 310 kb/d to 50.2 mb/d. Global oil output is projected to expand by 1.5 mb/d to a record 101.5 mb/d in 2023, with the US driving non-OPEC+ gains of 1.9 mb/d. Next year, non-OPEC+ supply is also set to dominate world supply growth, up 1.3 mb/d while OPEC+ could add just 160 kb/d."
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Keep in mind that IEA has a long history of understating demand for future periods and then revising them upward. My prediction is that oil demand in 2024 will grow by at least 2 million bpd.

Summer is coming to an end, thank god.. what happens after Labor Day?

Global observed oil inventories declined by 17.3 mb in June, led by the OECD. Non-OECD stocks and oil on water were largely unchanged. OECD industry stocks fell by 14.7 mb, in line with the seasonal trend, to 2 787 mb. Industry stocks were 115.4 mb below the five-year average, with product inventories particularly tight. Preliminary data suggest global inventories drew further in July and August.
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Diesel inventories are dangerously low.

Key to my forecast that WTI will average $90/bbl in Q4 is falling OECD Petroleum Inventories:

IEA: "Crude and products inventories have drawn sharply. In July, observed oil stocks decreased for a third consecutive month, with OECD industry stocks more than 100 mb below the five-year average. Market balances are set to tighten further into the autumn as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend supply cuts at least through September. An ample OPEC+ spare capacity cushion of 5.7 mb/d means there is significant scope for the alliance to raise output later in the year. Additional supplies of heavy sour crude would allow refiners to boost activity and help ease product market tensions. But if the bloc’s current targets are maintained, oil inventories could draw by 2.2 mb/d in 3Q23 and 1.2 mb/d in the fourth quarter, with a risk of driving prices still higher."
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I believe that OPEC+ will not significantly increase exports in Q4. I doubt that the cartel actually has as much spare capacity as IEA estimates above. Plus, Saudi Arabia wants higher oil prices.
Transportation fuel inventories are tight and diesel inventories are extremely tight. This world runs on diesel.
Read this: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Looming-Oil-Crisis-The-World-Is-Ignoring.html